1, when it comes to employment, it is inseparable from the group of college students.
According to the data of the Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates in 2022 is expected to be10.76 million, an increase of1670,000 year-on-year, with both scale and increment reaching record highs, while in 2065.438+02, it was only 6.8 million. There are more and more graduates, and the employment situation is facing long-term challenges and pressures. In June 16-24 years old and 25-59 years old, the unemployment rates were 19.3% and 4.5% respectively. The epidemic has brought uncertainty to economic development, and most enterprises can only cut back on expenses to survive, especially for college students without work experience.
As for housing, it is true that the house price is high.
According to the sales data of1-June released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China is 689.23 million square meters, and the sales amount is 6,607.2 billion yuan. It can be concluded that the national average house price in the first half of the year was 9586 yuan/square meter. It is not uncommon for house prices to break through 10 thousand. After all, housing prices in these big cities have doubled during the rising market. However, at this stage, the house price in 1 17 counties is also a high trend, which is really unexpected.
On July 26th, CBN reported "Scanning the county property market: the house price in Tou county is firm, and the average price in eight counties exceeds 20,000 yuan/square meter", and mentioned several figures: 1. As of June, the house price in 1 17 counties in China exceeded 10000 yuan/square meter, of which 8 counties exceeded 20000 yuan/square meter. 2. In terms of regional distribution, among the counties with the highest housing price 10, there are 7 in Zhejiang, 2 in Hainan and 1 in Jiangsu.
For example, in Lingshui, Hainan, although the house price has dropped by 1.2%, it is still the only county in China with a house price of 30,000 yuan/square meter. For example, the average house price in Jinhua Yongkang reached 24,679 yuan/square meter, up by 15.05% year-on-year. Jiangshan, a county-level city bordering Jiangxi in western Zhejiang, is about to enter the 20,000 mark.
What is this concept? Let's compare the housing prices in new first-tier cities.
Lingshui's house price is 33,376 yuan/square meter, ranking second, surpassing many new first-tier cities such as Wuhan, Chengdu, Foshan, Xi, Chongqing and Changsha, and the average price of these cities is less than 20,000 yuan/square meter. In other words, most of the new first-line housing prices are not as good as these counties.
What impact will this trend have on the property market?
The house price in the county is over 10,000 yuan, and the unit price is catching up with the new first-tier cities. Behind it is inseparable from the * * * similarity of "population". After all, there has always been a long-term trend in real estate to look at the population's point of view. Therefore, a vibrant market and a high income level can create a huge space for population inflow. Looking at Tou County alone, these places are basically rich areas along the eastern coast. The most representative commodity is Yiwu, where the foreign trade industry is particularly developed. The total import and export volume rose from $36,543.82 billion in 2065,438+00 to $4,509 million in 2020, a 65,438+04.4-fold increase, which constantly attracted foreigners to start businesses here. In the past ten years, the net inflow of Yiwu population was 625,000, and the permanent population was 1.86 million. In 202 1 year, the per capita disposable income reached 77,468 yuan, three times the national level. It can be said that bosses of all sizes hold up half the sky of housing prices in Yiwu.
Secondly, natural resource-based counties, such as Lingshui, Hainan, are typical tourism-driven counties that rely on their own resources to develop; There is also a county town, which is geographically close to hot cities and undertakes the industry and population of big cities.
To sum up, these counties are all counties with strong economic development. With good resource endowment, industrial base and transportation conditions, it can absorb enough foreign population and have a high impact on housing prices. However, there are more than 1800 county towns in China, and the county towns at the tip of the pyramid are still like this. How much support do the remaining small cities have for housing prices?
On the one hand, behind the housing price in 1 17 county, the phenomenon of "separation of people and households" of 500 million people deserves attention.
The so-called "separation of people and households" refers to the population whose residence and household registration are not in the same township street and have left the household registration for more than half a year. According to the data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20021year, the population separated from households exceeded 500 million, reaching 504 million, an increase of11530,000 compared with 2020. Compared with 20 10, the population separated from households has increased by more than 89%.
Such a huge crowd enters the city, but the household registration stays at home. On the one hand, it accelerates the urbanization process and promotes the rapid development of the real estate industry. On the other hand, counties without young people can only go further and further on the road of aging and false prosperity of real estate. Over time, the county has naturally become an "island". 3 1 provincial net population data shows that the three provinces with the largest net population increase of 5438+0 in 2026 are Zhejiang (an increase of 720,000), Guangdong (an increase of 600,000) and Hubei (an increase of 547,000). These places not only gather population, but more importantly, the influx of young people. Judging from the proportion of people over 60 years old, Guangdong only accounts for 12.35%, and the aging rate is extremely low, with Hubei accounting for 20.42% and Zhejiang accounting for 19. 1%. It can be seen that when urban housing supply cannot meet the needs of separated families, house prices will naturally push up.
On the other hand, from a national perspective, there are still 3.8 billion square meters of houses that cannot be sold.
According to the data of Ke Rui, the total inventory of commercial housing reached 3.8 billion square meters in June. Specific to different regions, first-tier cities rose slightly 1% month-on-month, down 3% year-on-year, and there was basically no inventory; Cities below the second tier are not so optimistic. Guiyang, Dalian, Tangshan, Shenyang, Shijiazhuang, Zhuzhou and Yantai have higher generalized inventory levels, exceeding 654.38 billion square meters, followed by Nanchang, Changsha, Yueyang, Lanzhou, Taiyuan, Zibo, Harbin, Baoji and Bengbu, with generalized inventory reaching more than 80 million square meters.
We should know that the inventory in a broad sense is based on the inventory in a narrow sense, that is, the houses that have obtained the pre-sale permit but have not yet been sold, plus the area to be started+the area that has been started without the pre-sale permit, so it can be said that most of the areas for sale are included. If you put 3.8 billion square meters into the number of housing units, it is equivalent to 38 million houses 100 square meter. Although the housing area is only a vague calculation, it is enough to explain the problem: in the third-and fourth-tier cities where the vast majority of people are out all the year round and the aging is intensifying, it has become an established fact that housing inventory is difficult to digest.
After all, thanks to the wave of shed reform, the housing prices and consumption levels of many small cities and counties in China have been greatly improved. However, in the past two years, the scale of shed reform has shrunk and a large number of people have flowed out. Many talents find that the housing prices in small cities are seriously mismatched with the wages of most people. The result gradually evolved into the result that the house inventory was difficult to digest and no one cared about the major sales offices.
Fang said you had something to say. In fact, in the process of this market downturn, especially in many areas with serious population outflow and single industry, house prices have dropped a lot year-on-year, but it does not mean that the county property market has peaked. After all, behind the housing prices in 100 counties, nearly 500 million people have left their homes, and 465,438+100 million square meters of houses have been pushed up. Most areas without population will find it difficult to leave the future.