First of all, China's economic modernization is a catch-up economic modernization. China's economic modernization is not "natural evolution", but artificial and forced. This is also a common phenomenon in countries with backward economic modernization. This kind of economic modernization is very important to learn from the experience of advanced countries, but it is impossible to completely repeat the path taken by the pioneers, because the international environment and their own conditions of the pioneers and latecomers are very different. In the early stage of industrialization, China's economic modernization is not an economic conscious behavior, but an economic countermeasure facing the pressure of survival. This kind of economic modernization is impossible to succeed.
Secondly, China's economic modernization follows the basic laws of world economic modernization. China's economic modernization includes the overall industrialization of the national economy, the continuous growth of labor productivity and the change of international economic status. However, among the pioneer countries of world economic modernization, no country has the population size of China. In fact, the total population of developed countries is about 900 million, 400 million less than that of China. Therefore, China's economic modernization faces more challenges.
Third, China's economic modernization is an integral part of the world economic modernization, which cannot be separated from the world economy. China's economic modernization has experienced three periods of rapid growth, namely, the end of 1870 ~ 1895, the early 20th century (19 12 ~ 1936) and the late 20th century (65438+). These three periods are all the periods when China implemented the open economic policy. Of course, the first stage of opening up is partial opening up under the pressure of foreign gunboats, the second stage is disorderly opening up under the inability of the government to manage, and the third stage is orderly opening up under the effective management of the government. Although China is on the edge of the world economic system, its three-time opening-up has provided vitality for China's economic modernization.
Fourth, planned economy is not an effective mode of economic modernization. Very often, the economic modernization of China is led by the government. Industrialization during the Westernization Movement was supervised by bureaucrats, industrialization during the Republic of China was supervised by bureaucrats, and industrialization in the first 40 years of New China was planned by the government. History has proved that the planned economy model is inefficient and the government-run industrialization is unsuccessful; At the same time, it is impossible to catch up with industrialization without reasonable government intervention. The myth of free market economy was shattered at the beginning of the 20th century, and the mode of planned economy failed at the end of the 20th century. The mixed market economy model with limited government intervention has been proved to be a reasonable model of economic modernization.
Fifth, the war has a great destructive effect on China's economic modernization. In the process of China's economic modernization, there have been hundreds of wars, big and small. Every war has caused loss of life and property, and delayed the process of economic modernization. In particular, the Japanese invasion of China and other foreign wars of aggression against China have had a tremendous negative impact on China's economic modernization. "Japanese aggression delayed China's industrialization for at least 20 years."
Sixth, China's economic modernization must seize the opportunity. We missed three great opportunities in history. In the three hundred years of world economic modernization, China lost three good opportunities for economic modernization. China is a backward country in economic modernization. It started later than others and lost great opportunities, which made China's economic modernization worse. Mr Zhao Dexin once pointed out that China lost three opportunities for modernization.
The first time was 1793, which missed the spread of the first industrial revolution. The British industrial revolution took place around 1763, and in 1825, the British Parliament lifted the restrictions on machinery export, and the industrial revolution spread to the European continent. 1793, in the 30th year after the industrial revolution, King George of England sent an envoy to visit China to request the establishment of diplomatic relations. At that time, Emperor Qianlong of Qing Dynasty refused to establish diplomatic relations with Britain, which delayed the start of China's industrialization for about 70 years.
The second time was 1842 ~ 1860, which missed the opportunity to start the second industrial revolution. 1842 after the defeat of the opium war, the Qing dynasty did not adjust its economic policies in time, but deceived itself with illusions, refused to know the outside world and refused to change the old system. At that time, the second industrial revolution was brewing in Europe. 1870 ~ 19 13 The second industrial revolution characterized by electrification completely changed the world economic structure. Countries such as the United States, Germany and Italy seized the opportunity and achieved success. The Westernization Movement from 1860 to 1894 was the beginning of China's industrialization, but it was forced and passive.
The third time was 1957 ~ 1976, which missed the opportunity of technology transfer in the third industrial revolution. After the end of World War II, the west entered the "golden age" of economic development, and the third industrial revolution with automation as its main feature took place. Developed countries transfer industrial technology to developing countries, and South Korea and other countries and regions have become newly industrialized countries and regions. China, on the other hand, suffered from political movements one after another and lost the opportunity to accept industrial transfer.
Seventh, the process of China's economic modernization was interrupted twice.
The first time was the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression period (1937 ~ 1945). The process of industrialization in China was interrupted by the war, and the level of industrialization went backwards (Table 3-5 and Table 3- 17). It didn't return to the level of 1936 until around 1952; The Japanese invasion of China delayed the modernization of China for 20 years. Although there was industrial growth during the war, it served the war.
The second time was during the Cultural Revolution (1960 ~ 1977). The process of industrialization in China was interrupted by political movements, and the level of industrialization regressed (Table 3-6). Before and after the "Cultural Revolution", the proportion of China's industrial added value dropped from 4 1% in 1960 to 3 1% in 1968, and returned to 40% in 1970. The proportion of industrial labor also decreased from 16% in 1960 to 8% in 1965, then hovered around 10% in10, and recovered to/kloc in 1977.
Eighth, the task of China's economic modernization is very arduous. If the comprehensive time series difference between GDP per capita and economic structure is understood as the time series difference between China and other countries, then the international gap of China's economic modernization level in 200 1 year is very significant (Table 3- 18). In 200 1 year, the comprehensive age difference between China and the United States is about 100, 80 years with Germany and other seven countries, 50 years with Japan and 30 years with Portugal and other five countries. Therefore, it is not easy for China to reach the advanced and medium level of the world economy, and it needs long-term and arduous efforts.
2. Competitive advantages and disadvantages of China's economic modernization.
History can't be changed, just as we can't change our origins. However, the future can be chosen and created. The history of China's economic modernization has become the past, and the future of China's economic modernization is waiting for us to create. Of course, ideals must be based on science and facts. 2/KLOC-In the first 50 years of the 20th century, China's economic modernization will be in the condition of globalization and knowledge. What are its advantages and disadvantages? Different people have different answers.
(1) The competitive advantage of China's economic modernization. The competitive advantages of China's economic modernization are at least manifested in five aspects: first, China has a strong social foundation for national rejuvenation; Secondly, China has the most human resources in the world; Third, China has the largest potential market in the world; Fourth, China has the second largest scientific and technological human resources in the world; Fifthly, China is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations.
(2) The competitive disadvantage of China's economic modernization. The competitive disadvantage of China's economic modernization is also manifested in five aspects: first, China's market economic system is imperfect; Second, China's understanding of the international market is very limited; Third, excellent entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial spirit have not yet formed; Fourth, China's per capita resources (such as cultivated land and water resources) are lower than the world average; Fifth, China has not completed the great cause of national reunification.
3. Opportunities and challenges of China's economic modernization.
What are the opportunities and challenges of China's economic modernization in the first 50 years of the 20th century? There is no standard answer. The great opportunity of China's economic modernization comes from the world economic modernization itself. In the world's classic economic modernization process, there are three opportunities of mechanization, electrification and automation, which China missed. In the process of the second economic modernization, there will also be new opportunities and challenges.
(1) 265438+New opportunities for China's economic modernization in the 20th century. 2 1 century, the process of world economic modernization is bound to produce new opportunities, so we should study them carefully and not miss them. For example, the new opportunities brought by economic informatization and globalization, green economy and bio-economy, experience economy and cultural economy, and so on.
(2) The new challenge of China's economic modernization in 21century. China's economic modernization will face many challenges in the 2 1 century. For example, the sustained and rapid growth of labor productivity; The transformation from ternary economy to knowledge economy; Agricultural modernization; Sustainable supply of resources and energy to maintain financial stability; Ecological modernization, coordinated development of economy and ecology; Regional coordinated development; Coordinated development between urban and rural areas; Improve the quality of labor force in an all-round way; Continuously improve innovation ability and efficiency; Economic globalization and safeguarding national interests.
The past 160 years is the 160 years when China went from deep sleep to awakening. The coming 100 year will be 100 year that China's economic modernization will catch up with. If we can seize new opportunities and bravely face and overcome new challenges, then China will realize economic modernization in 2 1 century, the Chinese nation will realize great rejuvenation, and the 22nd century will be the century of China.
(China Modernization Strategy Research Group, China Modernization Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences)