First of all, during the Asian financial turmoil, Hong Kong was the only region that kept its exchange rate stable and pegged to the US dollar. This shows that compared with most countries (or regions) in the region, Hong Kong has a more stable and healthy financial system, regulatory system and economic foundation, and is more capable of resisting external shocks and international financial turmoil.
Compared with Southeast Asian countries, Hong Kong can successfully resist external shocks and international financial turmoil, thus ensuring the stability of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. (1) Compared with most Southeast Asian countries and regions, Hong Kong has a sound economic foundation, strong economic strength and good development prospects. Although there are still some hidden dangers, it can still provide a reliable economic foundation for stabilizing the overall exchange rate. (2) The linked exchange rate system is the internal mechanism to realize the stability of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. At the same time, the Hong Kong SAR Government's adherence to the linked exchange rate system has objectively given investors great confidence and support, making it possible to stabilize the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. (3) Hong Kong has huge foreign exchange reserves, with the per capita foreign exchange reserves ranking third in the world (US$ 88.8 billion) and second in the world (US$ 65,438+03,660). At the same time, its fiscal surplus and reserves are considerable, and it is also strongly supported by the foreign exchange reserves of China government13.4 billion US dollars. Compared with the fiscal deficits and limited foreign exchange reserves of most countries in the financial turmoil, Hong Kong naturally has important conditions for stabilizing the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. (4) Hong Kong's financial system and financial management system are relatively perfect, especially in recent years, a series of reforms have been implemented, such as amending the banking regulations, implementing accounting arrangements, regulating liquidity, and instant settlement system, which have increased the security and supervision of Hong Kong's banking system, thus avoiding the defects of the financial systems and supervision systems of most Southeast Asian countries and providing financial system guarantee for stabilizing the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar.
Second, it is necessary to defend the linked exchange rate system, but it is expensive to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate only by raising interest rates. A large number of facts show that the linked exchange rate system is the "stabilizer" of Hong Kong's financial market, economic development order and political system. In this financial turmoil, the Hong Kong SAR Government successfully defended the linked exchange rate system, ensured the stability and soundness of Hong Kong's financial system and overall economic foundation, and provided a solid foundation and reliable guarantee for Hong Kong's future development. Since the introduction of the linked exchange rate system in 1983, the Hong Kong government has successfully weathered many political and economic events and the Hong Kong dollar turmoil. Over the past decade or so, the lowest exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar was 7.95: 1 and the highest was 7.7 14: 1. The fluctuation of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has never exceeded 2%, which fully shows the important role of the system in stabilizing social, political and economic life during the financial crisis and the effectiveness of maintaining financial order and market confidence. Therefore, from the practice of Hong Kong's economic development, it is necessary to defend the linked exchange rate system. Of course, we must also see that under the current operating conditions, Hong Kong has also paid a heavy price for maintaining the stability of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, and the asset prices represented by the stock market and the property market have fallen sharply.
Third, the heavy price paid by Hong Kong to stabilize the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar is objectively beneficial to the long-term development of Hong Kong in the future. This financial storm shows that the service-oriented economy with finance and real estate as its core content is easy to form a bubble economy. As far as Hong Kong is concerned, the policy of high land price and high housing price that Hong Kong has implemented for many years with the economic transformation, and the recent excessive speculation in the securities market have not only increased the overall operating cost of Hong Kong for a long time, but also increased the bubble component of Hong Kong's economy, which has adversely affected the long-term development of Hong Kong and objectively needs to be adjusted. We believe that in this financial crisis, the asset contraction represented by securities and real estate and the huge losses caused by it are actually the passive over-adjustment of Hong Kong's early development model. The serious consequences in this process objectively illustrate the urgency of this adjustment. It will be a good thing for Hong Kong's long-term development in the future if it can take advantage of the heavy price paid by the financial crisis in exchange for making necessary adjustments to its development direction under the condition of a service-oriented economy. In the near future, the asset contraction represented by securities and real estate can at least reduce the economic operation cost of Hong Kong, thus enhancing Hong Kong's international competitiveness to some extent.
Fourth, the recent trend of Hong Kong stocks will not rebound sharply, and the Hong Kong dollar may attack again. 10 After the stock market crash in late June, the bubble component of Hong Kong stocks was squeezed out, but at present, there are at least the following factors that make it difficult for Hong Kong stocks to perform well in the near future: (1) The stock market crash in Southeast Asia, especially in Hong Kong, caused stock market shocks in new york, London and Tokyo, which in turn affected the continuous fluctuations of the stock markets in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. Once this situation of mutual linkage is formed, it will not stop immediately because of inertia. (2) At present, the Asian financial turmoil shows no signs of stopping, especially after South Korea and Japan are hit, it may further spread to the wider world. In this context, the Hong Kong stock market is still likely to fluctuate. (3) After Southeast Asian countries abandoned the original fixed exchange rate system one after another, which led to the active or passive devaluation of their currencies, Hong Kong, as the only region in the region that kept the exchange rate stable and the original linked exchange rate system unchanged, greatly increased the possibility that the relatively appreciating Hong Kong dollar would be hit by international speculative capital, which led to the volatility of the Hong Kong stock market.