The entanglement of 20 12 has laid an important foreshadowing for 20 13: both high price and low price have lost market support, and garlic in 20 13 years may be more terrible than the skyrocketing.
Where does "garlic you are malicious" come from? Where will garlic you be? 20 13 what enlightenment will this garlic price war bring to the market?
Garlic wars
How to weigh the price is very tangled.
Compared with previous years, the storage time of garlic was delayed by more than half a month this year. August 6th is the day when garlic farmer Guo Xiang sold the last batch of garlic. 2.6 yuan, this is the transaction price after several rounds. 1200 yuan, this is the loss of every mu of land in Guo Xiang. 300,000 tons, which is the current inventory gap in jinxiang garlic.
Jinxiang is a famous garlic town in China. Many garlic farmers, like Guo Xiang, accepted a compromise price after weighing the left and right. Compared with previous years, this year, jinxiang garlic not only delayed the warehousing time by half a month, but also experienced a shortage of warehousing. The reason is that the painful game between garlic farmers and garlic merchants is quite "tangled".
The pain of garlic farmers lies in watching the price of garlic drop from 4 yuan to 3 yuan today.
The reality is cruel: once garlic sprouts, it will be sold without bidding, and sooner or later it will be sold to the store for refrigeration. The closer to the storage deadline, the less meaningful it is to insist on high prices. It is only a matter of time before you choose to compromise, otherwise you can only lose more.
Surprisingly, the garlic merchants who took the initiative did not feel that they had taken advantage. The market is depressed and the demand is not strong. In the eyes of garlic merchants, even the lowest price in the eyes of this garlic farmer still means risk.
It is this kind of worry that garlic merchants are in no hurry to buy garlic in the market before the deadline approaches. Liu Yu, a garlic merchant in Xinfadi Market, said: "This price is also the result of our compromise. After all, we can't let ourselves be out of stock before May next year. "
The 20 12 garlic market entered the closing stage in such a depressing atmosphere, which also set a new record in the history of garlic price fluctuation.
From the Golden Age to the Collapse Age
The word "garlic is cruel" comes from 20 10, and "garlic is cheap" comes from 201/garlic market crash. But before that, the sharp rise and fall of garlic prices is nothing new.
In 2005, the price of garlic rose to a record high. The wholesale price per kilogram is around 7 yuan, and the retail price in supermarkets is around 12 yuan/kg. At the beginning of 2006, due to the increase in export volume and other reasons, the price of new garlic fell after it was listed.
At the end of 2006, the price of garlic rose rapidly again, and the price was close to 5 yuan per kilogram. At that time, the market was booming, and the huge international and domestic market demand pushed the price of garlic up all the way. Garlic is not only expensive, but also easy to sell. This period is also regarded as the "golden age" of garlic market.
However, the good times did not last long. In 2007, the market price of garlic began to fall, and it dropped to 3 yuan per kilogram in May, while the price of new garlic dropped to around 1.5 yuan per kilogram after it went on the market. By the end of 2007, the garlic market had exceeded demand. Fortunately, there was a great demand for garlic at that time, and the price of garlic was stable at 1.9 yuan per kilogram.
After the listing of new garlic in 2008, the price of garlic can no longer be "calm". The garlic market collapsed completely, and the price dropped to 0.5 yuan per kilogram. Garlic farmers have entered the embarrassing situation of "losing more", and many garlic farmers have given up planting garlic. Due to the decline in output. At the end of 2008, the garlic market began to rise.
After the spring of 2009, the price of garlic began to rise. As the planting area of garlic has been greatly reduced in recent years, the output has shown a downward trend. In June 2009, garlic began to enter the cold storage, and the price of garlic began to rise, rising to about 7 yuan per kilogram.
The upward trend of garlic price continued to 20 10. After the spring of 20 10, the highest price of garlic reached about 8 yuan per kilogram, and reached about 12 yuan per kilogram in June of 5438+00.
At this time, the soaring price of garlic has attracted the attention of the media, and the brand of "Garlic You Are Malicious" has begun to ring in the emerging Weibo. And some more farsighted reporters boldly predicted as early as the end of 2009: 20 1 1, garlic collapse!
20 1 1, "garlic is cheap" arrived as scheduled, but no one expected it to come so quickly. 20 1 1 June, new garlic was listed in various producing areas. 20 1 1 was originally a "big year"; 20 10 was encouraged by the market, and the planting area of garlic producing areas increased; On the other hand, the weather is suitable for garlic growth. The combination of several factors greatly increased the output of garlic that year. The supply of garlic exceeded the demand overnight, and the price plummeted, and even a large area was unsalable. A large number of garlic farmers "have no way to sell garlic" and even abandon garlic and destroy it.
The general price increase of grain and oil will gradually increase the planting cost of garlic. At this point, garlic farmers have been driven to the wall by rising costs. However, the market is ruthless. Until the end of 20 1 1 or even the beginning of 20 12, the depressed garlic price did not even give garlic farmers a chance to pay back the money.