The above data clearly reflects the deep logic of why the share prices of some copper and aluminum enterprises rose as high as 100% in less than one year.
Of course, the rise of China's commodity market not only includes the expectation of the influx of "hot money", but also has a more convincing basis, that is, the strong industrial demand generated by economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.
The biggest difference between the price increase of products of resource-based enterprises and the price increase of goods in other industries is that while enjoying the price increase of products, they will also enjoy the revaluation of the resources they hold.
Today's protagonist is "aluminum".
Aluminum is a metallic element with the symbol Al, which is a silvery white light metal. It has plasticity. The finished products are usually made into rods, sheets, foils, powders, tapes and wires. The relative density of aluminum is 2.70. The melting point is 660℃ and the boiling point is 2327℃.
Aluminum and aluminum profiles are one of the most widely used and economical materials at present. Light weight and corrosion resistance of aluminum are two outstanding characteristics of its performance, which are widely used in aircraft, automobiles, trains, ships and decoration industries.
9 1% of the existing industrial products in China need to use aluminum, such as all-aluminum car bodies and aluminum profiles for home use. This shows how important the aluminum profile is in the national economic construction.
The basic reserves of bauxite in China are few, and the storage life of bauxite resources in China is far below the global average. Judging from the storage life of bauxite in major countries in 2020, the storage life of bauxite in China is only 8 years, while the global average life is 102.
According to the ranking of aluminum resources in the world in 2020, China's proven aluminum reserves will only account for 3.5% of the world's total by 2020. At present, the domestic dependence on bauxite imports exceeds 50%.
Domestic bauxite has been in short supply. Therefore, bauxite consumption in China is heavily dependent on imports. From 20 10 to 20 19, the import scale of bauxite in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In 20 19, the import of bauxite in China exceeded10 million tons, up by 2 1.9% year-on-year. In the first ten months of 2020, the import of bauxite reached 96.03 million tons.
In 20 19, the domestic bauxite production scale was 75 million tons, an increase of about 28 million tons compared with 20 12, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.9%. According to the latest ranking of the World Bank, China is the third largest bauxite smelter in the world, next only to Australia and Guinea.
There are many aluminum-related enterprises in China, such as China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, nanshan aluminum, Mingtai Aluminum and China Hongqiao.
In 2020, the national aluminum production increased steadily, and the price rebounded significantly year-on-year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum in China will be 7313,3708 and 57.79 million tons respectively, up by 0.3%, 4.9% and 8.6% respectively.
According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, since April 2020, the price of aluminum has gradually increased, and the average spot price reached 16480 yuan/ton in June and February, up 15% year-on-year, reaching a record high. The average spot price for the whole year was 14 193 yuan/ton, up 1.7% year-on-year.
China's aluminum smelting enterprises are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other north, northwest and southwest regions. In 20 18, the production capacity of these four provinces accounted for 6 1.5% of the whole country.
The market concentration of aluminum smelting industry in China is relatively high. Enterprises with a capacity of over one million tons in China include China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, east hope, shenhuo group and Yunnan Aluminum. ..
Judging from the domestic demand in 2020, the domestic demand for aluminum exceeds expectations, especially the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises represented by real estate has been maintained at a high level, which has become the most important force for aluminum ingot destocking. At the same time, the increase in demand for aluminum strip caused by the epidemic also supported the increase in aluminum ingot prices during the year.
At present, the domestic social stock of aluminum ingots has been largely digested, from a high of 6.5438+0.67 million tons to the current 800,000 tons, with a cumulative stock of nearly 900,000 tons. The low inventory pattern makes aluminum prices easy to rise and difficult to fall.
In addition, the expectation of overseas demand recovery in the post-epidemic era also supported the strength of Lun Aluminum. This provides a strong support for the domestic aluminum price to rise steadily.
From the performance changes of major domestic aluminum enterprises, we can also see the prosperity of the aluminum industry.
From June 5438 to September 2020, the total operating income of China Aluminum Industry was133.2 billion yuan; ST Zhongfu's total operating income is 52 1 100 million yuan; The total operating income of the open-pit coal industry is 654.38+04.7 billion yuan; The total operating income of nanshan aluminum is 654.38+05.6 billion yuan. The gross profit is 103, 1 1.2, 48.5 and 33 1 100 million yuan respectively.
200211/On 29 October, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. released the first performance forecast of aluminum smelting industry, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother will be 890 million yuan in 2020, an increase of 80% year-on-year. It is estimated that in 2020, the non-homecoming net profit will be about 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 19%.
According to the company's estimated net profit attributable to the mother in 2020, the net profit attributable to the mother of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. in the fourth quarter of 2020 was about 320 million yuan, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter and increased by 57.63% compared with the fourth quarter of 20 19. The main reason is that the output of aluminum ingots has increased, and the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly.
In the rising market of aluminum industry, the stocks that benefit the most are undoubtedly bauxite-owned enterprises such as China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum and nanshan aluminum.