From the perspective of ETF, food and beverage ETF is about to enter the era of "Romance of the Three Kingdoms". The former Warburg Fund Food ETF(5 157 10) and Huaxia Fund Food and Beverage ETF(5 15 170) were listed one after another, and now there is China Merchants State Securities Food and Beverage ETF( 159843, the subscription time is up to 65438+.
First, how to treat the food and beverage industry?
The food and beverage industry mainly includes liquor, beer, dairy industry, condiments, leisure snacks and so on. Liquor accounts for more than half of the market value. The medium and long-term logic of the industry is domestic demand (driven by consumer demand), consumption upgrading (consumption emphasizes innovation, brand and personality), industry concentration improvement (industry leaders with good competition pattern, high asset quality, strong profitability, steady performance and abundant cash flow are more likely to enjoy brand premium and valuation premium) and inflation (macroeconomic recovery, rising inflation expectations).
From the demand point of view, liquor is subject to the growth of business banquets and personal consumption demand, dairy products benefit from the enhancement of residents' health awareness, and beer benefits from the growth of consumption in catering channels.
From the perspective of consumption upgrading, liquor has accelerated to concentrate on famous wines, dairy products have entered the era of quality and diversified demand, condiments have also moved towards high-end structure, and beer manufacturers have also upgraded their product structure through diversified brands.
From the perspective of industry concentration, the concentration of leading enterprises in liquor, dairy products, condiments, beer and other sub-sectors continued to increase.
The most concerned food and beverage is the liquor sub-industry. The short-term catalytic factor is the peak season of liquor sales in the Spring Festival, and the market expects the price to rise strongly. The structural prosperity of liquor is still high, especially high-end liquor.
The short-term concern of the market is that the food and beverage industry has been rising, especially under the belief of Maotai, liquor stocks continue to rise and the industry valuation is at a high level. The valuation percentage has been at a historical high since 20 13, and it is still at a high level. 65438+ 10 began to enter the performance forecast period, and the market paid more attention to whether the performance could grow at a high speed to digest its high valuation. Once some stocks fail to meet expectations, Ken may enter Davis Double Play.
2. How is the National Food and Beverage Industry Index (399396) compiled?
For the food and beverage index (0008 15), please refer to the previous article "New varieties: food ETFs and food and beverage ETFs in high-quality subdivision tracks". This article will look at the compilation of the food and beverage industry index of the State Certificate.
The national food and beverage industry index covers two three-level industries of food and beverage, with the weight of liquor exceeding 50%, followed by condiments and dairy products. Weighted by the market value of free circulation, the upper limit of stock authority is 15%. The index is adjusted once every six months, and the constituent stocks will be temporarily adjusted if there is any abnormality.
Scope of stock selection: food and beverage belong to two third-level industries under the classification of the national securities industry, excluding ST shares and *ST shares. The trading time is more than 6 months, there are no major violations in the last year, no major problems in the financial report, no abnormal operations in the last year, no major losses, and no abnormal fluctuations in the stock price during the inspection period. (Many indexes under the State Certificate are similar to these indicators. Let's rule out the potential big thunder stocks first. )
Sampling method: sort by the average daily turnover in the last six months, excluding 10%, and sort by the total market value, and select the top 50.
Industry distribution: Liquor accounts for more than 58% of the industry distribution, followed by dairy products and condiments.
Market value distribution: the market value distribution is relatively balanced, with stocks with large market value exceeding100 billion accounting for 10%, followed by 20-30 billion accounting for 12%.
Judging from the valuation, the recent valuation percentage is at an all-time high, and there is a trend of catching up with the top, depending on whether the annual report performance can digest part of the valuation.
20 major stocks: well-known and familiar consumer bull stocks. Sure enough, consumer stocks are the easiest for investors to feel intuitively, and eating, drinking and having fun are the deepest feelings ~
To sum up, there is not much difference in the subdivided food and beverage index (0008 15) from the compilation method and constituent stocks. CSI) and the National Food and Beverage Industry Index (399396). One is compiled by China Securities Index Company, and the other is compiled by China Securities Index Company. Among the top 20 heavyweights, only Shuanghui shares are different from tasteless food, and the weight difference is not big, which is of little significance to ordinary food.
Third, how to choose three food and beverage ETFs?
After the listing of Huabao Food ETF, its scale quickly doubled, from 865 million shares on June 4th, 65438 to 13,160,000 shares. The listing scale of Huaxia food and beverage is 2 1 100 million yuan, and it remains to be seen whether the subsequent scale will be expanded. Due to the slight difference between the time of establishment and the time of listing, the net value of the two companies after listing is slightly different, but the trading after listing is relatively active, with an average daily turnover of more than 10 million. Ordinary investors don't have to worry about liquidity problems, and they won't do it again in the short term.
To sum up, the food and beverage industry, as one of the oldest consumer industries, has a long-term prosperity with the increase of consumer demand and consumption, but it is wary of high valuation in the short term and waits for flowers to bloom. Those who like the new fund can pay attention to CSI food and beverage ETF( 159843), those who like the on-site direct attention to Huabao food (5 157 10) or Huaxia food and beverage (5 15 170), and those who like the off-site can pay attention to CSI food and beverage in cathay pacific fund.
(PS: On-site trading can only be conducted with the stock account or on-site fund account of a securities company, while off-site trading can be conducted with brokers, banks, Alipay, fund companies such as official website and Tian Tian Fund. ).
end
A note about this number: the content is just a record of thinking and code words, and the text is as I wish, but due to the limited ability circle, the content may be flawed, so you can leave a message for feedback. The opinions and investment varieties in this paper are for reference only and do not constitute investment suggestions. If you invest on this basis, you will be at your own risk.