20 15 Russian black sea fleet will lose large surface ships.
The Black Sea Fleet is the oldest fleet in Russia. The Black Sea is a warm ocean that can be navigable all year round. In contrast, the White Sea and the Baltic Sea have a freezing period of nine months a year, while the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet can only enter the ocean from the north for three months a year; Moreover, the Black Sea is also a strategic place, and Russian history attaches great importance to the construction of this fleet.
1783 On May 13, a Russian fleet consisting of five frigates and dozens of other auxiliary warships sailed into Ahdiyar Bay on the southwest coast of Crimea, expelling the Turks. They became the first ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has been 23 1 year. During the Soviet period, the Black Sea Fleet was extremely powerful, second only to the Northern Fleet in scale, and had the only large aircraft carrier, Kuznetsov. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Black Sea Fleet declined gradually.
At present, the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet has only 23,000 people, 90 ships of various types and 50 aircraft, and its overall strength is less than one-fifth of that of the former Soviet Union, so its combat effectiveness is not worth mentioning. Most of the ships belonging to the fleet are small and medium-sized ships, and most of them are old ships.
2014165438+1On October 4th, the large guided missile destroyer "Kerch" of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet caught fire at the Sevastopol military port and was seriously injured. When the red ship was undergoing regular maintenance in the harbor, fire came out of the power cabin at the back of the ship and burned four cabins. The fire was caused by the crew drying clothes with a diesel generator, not by the wires originally guessed by the media.
This old ship serving in 1974 has been 40 years old and has been seriously aging. It can only serve as a facade in the declining Black Sea Fleet. The Kerch is a Kara-class large anti-submarine ship with a displacement of 9,700 tons. It is the second capital ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, second only to the flagship glorious cruiser Moscow. Kara class is a large-scale anti-submarine ship that the Soviet Union 197 1 began to serve. The number of Soviet warship project is 1 134B, which is an enlarged model of Cresta II anti-submarine cruiser. All seven ships were built by the "6 1 Commune Member" shipyard in nikolayev, southern Ukraine, which is also the birthplace of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning. 2065438+On March 6th, 2004, the Russian navy bombed and sank the second anti-submarine ship of Kara class "Ochakov" in order to prevent the Ukrainian navy stationed in Crimea from leaving the port.
The Black Sea Fleet now has only one glorious cruiser "Moscow" with a tonnage of more than 10,000 tons, which will be refitted at the beginning of 20 15 as planned. A Kara-class large anti-submarine ship "Kerch" that just caught fire is expected to be retired soon. The Russian navy originally planned to make it a temporary flagship on 20 15. There is also a 5000-ton Carson-class improved guided missile destroyer "Wit", which has a longer life. Served in 1969, 45 years old, in a "permanent" maintenance state. The Black Sea Fleet also has two Crivac-class anti-submarine frigates with a displacement of 3,000 tons and a ship age of 30 years. Their technical condition is acceptable and they can go to sea to fight, but their weapons and equipment have already fallen behind.
The rest of the surface ships are not worth mentioning, except for military auxiliary ships, which are missile boats. Including two Nanuchika-class missile boats with a displacement of more than 500 tons, originally named as small missile boats, the Soviet Navy was once downgraded to large missile boats in its heyday. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the struggling Russian navy redefined it as a light missile frigate in order to maintain the number of frigates on paper. The latest and most distinctive light warships in the Black Sea Fleet are two "Sea Lion" class air-cushion missile ships (ship numbers 575 and 6 15), which were commissioned in 1995 and 1997 respectively. This is the world's first and only missile ship with a large hovercraft, with a full displacement of 1.050 tons, a diesel fuel combined power plant, a maximum speed of 53 knots, and two quadrupled sandfly supersonic anti-ship missiles. The sea lion class is the original creation of the Russian navy. This design has many shortcomings. Only two ships were built, all of which were deployed in the Black Sea Fleet and rarely went out to sea. Their combat status is unknown.
In this way, by 20 15, the Russian navy's black sea fleet will have no large surface ships.
The construction progress of the new Russian navy ship is very slow.
In recent years, with the continuous improvement and growth of the economy, the military expenditure has increased substantially, and Russia has gained some confidence. In the past three years, the Russian armed forces' weapons procurement plan has been basically completed on schedule, and some of them are in urgent need of equipment or even exceeded. The Russian Navy ordered the latest Su -30SM fighter for the Black Sea Fleet Air Force and the "Fortress" supersonic shore-to-ship missile for the coastal defense forces.
However, to restore the combat effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet, the most crucial thing is the large and medium-sized combat ships. According to the plan, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet 1 164 Glorious "Moscow" guided missile cruiser will undergo technical maintenance and modernization at the end of 20 15, and the air defense missile system will be updated. The outdated S-300 system will be replaced by a brand-new S-400. Specifically, the "star" shipyard in North Devinsk is responsible. During the upgrade of the guided missile cruiser "Moscow", it is planned to use the large anti-submarine ship "Kerch", which has just caught fire, as the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. However, the plan never changed quickly. At present, another 1 164 honorable "Marshal ustinov" guided missile cruiser is also undergoing maintenance at the North Devinsk Shipyard, which is scheduled to be delivered to the Russian Navy before the end of 20 14. However, Vladimir Nikitin, general manager of Star Shipyard, said that the actual workload of the ship's maintenance task far exceeded the original plan, and the maintenance work has not been completely finished, and it will be re-entered in 20 15. The modification plan of "Moscow" 20 15 had to be delayed.
In 2008, the Russian Navy ordered six 4000-ton 1 135.7 missile frigates, three of which were assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. The first ship, Admiral Grigolo Wiki, is scheduled to be delivered for the first time at the end of 20 13 and for the second time at the end of 20 14. Nothing has happened so far. It is estimated that 20 15 may be delivered. 1 135.7 The first ship of the missile frigate "Admiral Grigolo Grigorovic" started construction in June 20 10; The second "Admiral Essen" was started in July of 20 1 1 year; The construction of the third "Admiral makarov" started in February 20 12, and these three warships are expected to be deployed in place and form combat effectiveness 20 18 years ago.
1 135.7 frigate is a multifunctional ship, covering long-range anti-ship attack, air defense and anti-submarine warfare. Compared with the Talwad class sold to India before, the biggest improvement is to replace the original windless single-arm launcher with a 3S90E vertical launch system, and to change the 9M3 17ME air defense missile into a vertical launch. Although the Russian North Shipyard has started to build the 2235 "Admiral gorshkov" missile frigate with the same 4000-ton class in recent years, many of its equipment is more advanced than the later 1 135.7 "Admiral Grigolo"; But "Admiral gorshkov" is a brand-new design after all, especially using a brand-new combat system, phased array radar and Russian weapons and equipment that have never been used before. The technical risk is high, and the whole R&D and construction progress is greatly delayed than the original schedule. It has been in the water for four years, and the service period is uncertain. The ship started its sea trial on 20 14+ 1654381early October. According to the progress of China's navy, it can be officially put into service within one year, but in Russia, no one can say what will happen after the delivery of new weapons.
1 135.7 missile frigate was improved from the "Talwad" class exported to India. Most of the designs have been verified and the technology is mature. It may be that the Russian Navy bought another well-designed 1 135.7 to fill the gap in view of the unsatisfactory progress of Admiral gorshkov. 1 135.7 missile frigate is a self-use version of six "talwad" class frigates built by Russia for India. The technical level has not changed, and its combat effectiveness is roughly equivalent to China's 054A missile frigate. However, many systems used in model 1 135.7 were originally developed for overseas customers. These systems are not authorized to be used in Russian armed forces, and they have not been formally tested by the state, which makes the construction of the ship extremely difficult and the service period is delayed. Originally, a frigate with mature technology and mass production should be able to be built smoothly. For example, China's navy has built more than 20 Type 054A frigates in less than ten years.
In terms of underwater power, the Black Sea Fleet has not received new submarines for 24 years. At present, there is only one submarine, the kilo-class diesel-electric submarine Alrosa, which served in the navy in 1990. The ship is close to scrapping and has already stopped going to sea. The Russian Navy has ordered six new Kilo-class submarines for the Black Sea Fleet, so that a fully equipped submarine brigade can be formed. The construction of the first diesel-electric submarine "Novorossisk" of Type 636.3 started in August 20 10. So far, four submarines of this type have started construction, and the second "Rostov-on-Don" started construction on October 201kloc-0/65438 10. The first three ships have been launched. Although there is a delay as planned, for Russia, this progress is quite fast.
Kilo-class 636 submarine is a conventional diesel-electric submarine developed by the former Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Its underwater displacement is about 3000 tons, and it is equipped with six torpedo tubes, which can carry at most 18 torpedoes or submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. Type 636.3 submarine, also known as Type 636M, was developed by Russian Ruby Central Maritime Design Bureau, which is an improvement of Kilo-class Type 877 and Type 636 conventional submarines (these two submarines are also equipped in China, imported from 10). It has advanced stealth technology, expanded the scope of operations, and has the ability to attack land, water and underwater targets, mainly completing anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare in shallow waters. The submarine consists of 52 crew members, with an underwater speed of 20 knots, a range of 400 nautical miles when underwater electric propulsion is carried out and a battery life of 45 days. Equipped with 18 torpedo and 8 ship-to-air missiles. 636.3 The submarine adopts a water-drop boat, a floating raft damping device and a low-noise propeller, and the mute level is good when sailing. The Russian army claims that the noise intensity of this submarine is close to the ocean background noise, and it is extremely quiet. The Russian navy proudly calls it an "ocean black hole".
On June 20 1 1, Russia and France signed a military trade contract to buy two northwest winds, the second of which will be assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. The total contract price is as high as1700 million USD. Why do you say sky-high prices? Because it's quite expensive. According to the procurement contract between Russia and France, the profits of French shipbuilders are catching up with drug dealers. The cost of the northwest wind-class amphibious assault ship used by France is only150-200 million, equivalent to 260 million US dollars, which is only a quarter of that of the horizon-class guided missile destroyer. Moreover, this $6,543.8 +0.7 billion is only the cost of shipbuilding, excluding the necessary supporting equipment for amphibious warships such as hovercraft. Due to the Ukrainian crisis, France announced that it would postpone the delivery of the ship.
The combat capability of the Russian navy has dropped to the lowest point.
Because the ships of the Black Sea Fleet are generally aging and have low combat effectiveness, they are not enough to cope with the regional situation. In 20 13, Russia established a "permanent" naval task force in this area, mainly to safeguard Russia's national interests in the Black Sea and even the Mediterranean region. The task force consists of 12 combat vessels and military auxiliary ships, including the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov, the nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter Novgorod and the guided missile cruiser Varyag, which are the flagships of the Russian Navy, the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet respectively.
The task of the task force is very clear, that is, "annihilating" any target that threatens Russia's core border and security. At present, this goal is temporarily the maritime support force of the United States or NATO to Ukraine. Personally, I think this temporary deployment, even the deployment of the flagship of the three major fleets, is undoubtedly unsustainable. Because of security problems, the combat effectiveness of this grass-roots task force is also doubtful. At the beginning of 20 14, the guided missile cruiser "Varyag" left the task force and returned to its home port Vladivostok. According to the description of the Rihai Maritime Self-Defense Force monitored on the way, the Varyag was rusty and in poor condition on the way back to Hong Kong, unlike a warship that could be hit at any time.
In 20 14 years, the Russian navy has been very weak. The only surface warships that can sail out of the port are Kuznetsov, a Kirov-class nuclear cruiser Peter the Great, three glorious cruisers, three modern destroyers, six intrepid-class anti-submarine destroyers, and one of the few surface warships below 5,000 tons. Only nuclear submarines still have certain combat effectiveness.
Among them, the warships that the Pacific Fleet can sail out of Hong Kong are the glorious Varyag cruiser, two modern destroyers and four intrepid large anti-submarine ships. The scale and combat effectiveness of surface ships are roughly equivalent to a destroyer detachment of China Navy. -The destroyer detachment of China Navy usually consists of four destroyers and four frigates. For example, a destroyer detachment of the South China Sea Fleet has two Type 052C air defense destroyers, two Type 052B general destroyers and four Type 054A anti-submarine frigates. The air defense and anti-submarine capability provided by one detachment has surpassed that of the entire Russian Pacific fleet.
The northern fleet is the strongest. The large and medium-sized surface warships that can perform tasks now include Kuznetsov, Kirov-class nuclear cruiser Peter the Great, Glorious-class ustinov cruiser, 1 modern destroyer and two fearless-class anti-submarine destroyers. Their combat effectiveness is basically equivalent to the Pacific fleet plus a large aircraft carrier.
The situation of the Baltic Fleet is worse than that of the Black Sea Fleet. Now there are only a few small frigates and missile boats left to guard the coast with the shore-to-ship missile forces, and they have lost their ability to fight in the open sea.
Kirov class cruisers have a displacement of 25,000 tons, and the Soviet Union built four. Only Peter the Great is in service now. Lazar is the second ship, formerly known as Fu Longzhi. 1984 entered the Pacific fleet, and 1994 was discontinued. 1998 was sealed and retired. The Russian army plans to restart the ship on 20 1 1 and will enter Hong Kong for refitting at the end of this year. The latest news is that it will only be overhauled, there is no new weapon system update, and 20 18 is in service. This ship belongs to a marine dinosaur, so there is nothing to be afraid of.
The modern guided missile destroyer is the only large-scale multi-purpose guided missile destroyer with combat effectiveness at present, with a displacement of 8,000 tons. It is equipped with eight supersonic anti-ship bombs and two medium-range ship-to-air missile launchers. /kloc-entered service in the 1980s, with a total of 22 ships built. At present, the 1 1 ship has been retired and four ships have been sold to China. At present, the Russian army has seven modern-class ships, but only three can go to sea.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has approved the research and development of leader-class large-scale guided missile destroyers, and plans to build six ships, equipped with P-800 gem supersonic anti-ship missiles and the latest air defense missile system S-500 with anti-missile capability. The leader class is used to replace the modern brave destroyer currently in service. According to the shipbuilding capacity of the Russian navy in recent years, it is estimated that the ship can serve before President Putin retires.
The overall strength of the Russian army is recovering, but the Russian navy is still struggling because of serious injuries in the past decade, serious aging of warships and delayed recovery of domestic shipbuilding capacity. In addition, the Russian economy is greatly affected by the prices of energy and raw materials in the international market, and its own industrial system is still not perfect. The road to revitalizing the navy is really difficult.
If the strategic demand, capital budget and technical conditions are all as expected, by 20 18, the black sea fleet will become a modern modified 12000-ton glorious guided missile cruiser; Three 4000-ton 1 135.7 missile frigates; A modern small fleet consisting of six Kirov 636 conventional diesel-electric submarines and other ships.
Suddenly, a bolt from the blue, oil prices plummeted! ! !
Affected by many factors, the international crude oil price has been falling by more than 30% since the middle of the year. According to the calculation of the Russian Ministry of Finance, the price of crude oil must remain above 100 to support Putin's ten-year military expansion plan, but now the oil price has fallen below 70 dollars per barrel. What kind of decision will Putin make on this? We will wait and see.