Many of the views in the following article actually come from my empirical judgment and lack of data support. If there is any mistake, please correct me.

1, is there a problem?

Is the rent-to-sale ratio in Beijing really lower than that in many big cities in the world? Although the title does not list data, I have checked some figures before, and the answer is yes. London and new york are indeed taller than Beijing.

The following is quoted from "Research on the Development Trend and Policy Choice of Beijing Real Estate Market", Gao Feng, 20 15.

As a matter of fact, the internationally recognized rental-to-sale ratio range for measuring the good operation of a regional real estate market is generally 1: 300 ~ 1: 200. That is, if the invested property is not used for self-occupation but for rent, it is more reasonable for the owner to rely on the rent of 16 ~ 25 years to recover the cost. If the denominator is greater than 300, it will take more than 25 years to recover the cost, which means that the house price here is too high and the investment value is not great; If the denominator is less than 200, it means that the owner only needs to rent it for less than 16 years to recover the cost. The rental rate of the house is high, and the real estate investment potential is great.

Beijing's housing price and rent are above 400. The rental-to-sale ratio of 20 14 years is closer to 600, which shows that if a homeowner invests in buying a house in Beijing, it will take nearly 50 years to recover the cost simply by renting it, which is far higher than the highest international standard of 25 years, while the property right period of commercial housing in China is only 70 years, which shows that the housing price in Beijing is really too high, and the current rate of return on commercial housing investment is not suitable for it.

2, why low.

I think there is one main reason and several secondary reasons.

One of the main reasons is the confidence in the real estate market in the last decade. Buying a house has become a national consciousness. Everyone is actually waiting for the land to appreciate. Buying a house is not only a consumption behavior, but also a state investment behavior. The purchase price and lease price are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. In addition to the relationship between supply and demand, the purchase price has a strong correlation with people's appreciation expectations, while the rental price is more related to the current consumption level. Buy a house to invest in the future, rent a house to spend now. The deviation between the purchase price and the lease price essentially reflects the deviation between the value-added expectation of the market and its current value, and the deviation between the future and the present. Therefore, the real estate market with high rent-to-sale ratio mostly occurs in the rapidly rising market, such as Tokyo, Japan before the crisis. This is not only the embodiment of bubble, but also the embodiment of consumers' confidence in the future.

Several secondary reasons are not as critical as the above main reasons. Here is a brief list. First, the real estate market in China has just started. At present, a considerable number of rented houses on the market come from housing reform, demolition, housing distribution and other channels. Not bought, and some even have no property rights, which has lowered the rent to some extent.

The second problem is the sense of security. With the depreciation of domestic assets, people are not at ease with cash. You can only choose the investment opportunities given by the government and take risks, or wait for depreciation.

The third is the social atmosphere. My mother-in-law said that pushing up house prices was no joke.

I think so.

3. The main factors that determine the future ups and downs.

We simply divide the "future" into long-term, medium-term and short-term, corresponding to 50 years, 10 years and 1 year respectively.

In the long run, the most important factor affecting housing prices is definitely the new population, that is, family planning in China. Others include changes in urban form and living form (whether from high-rise apartments to single-family houses), changes in living habits (for example, Ma Jiajia did not buy a house after 1990s) and so on. Considering that 50 years is too far away, I won't say much here.

In the medium term, the main factor affecting housing prices is the urbanization process in China. In addition to entering the university, farmers entering the city will be the main source of new population in the city in the future (that is, the demand for housing). The significance of farmers entering cities is not (or mainly not) demolition, but to make China's productivity level and income distribution enable farmers to become new citizens by income. (That's a bit much, but there is an inherent contradiction between it and China's economic competitiveness-high wages mean higher industrial costs and lower competitiveness. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the structural proportion of labor cost in the cost of leading industries, which is also the necessity and urgency of industrial upgrading. In the medium term, the siphon effect of first-tier cities on the new population in China is still very strong, and college graduates have become the continuous supply of first-tier cities. Unless systemic risks break out, the stability of the property market in first-tier cities will be a long-term situation. Worried about the decline are second-and third-tier cities and small counties. If there is no new industry, there will be no new citizens. Not only have so many houses been built that they can't be sold, but even the demolished houses will become social instability factors.

Whether the property market is good in the near future depends mainly on economic development, that is, new citizens. Needless to say, in first-tier cities, it is a foregone conclusion that the property market will stabilize under flexible control policies. In second-and third-tier cities and small counties, if the industries are cultivated in place, the newly employed population is stable, and the wages are enough to afford local housing prices, then the property market can also be stable. Unfortunately, the above three conditions are too harsh for the current government of China. In the new normal economic environment, China should have a little time to give less developed areas a stable price reduction space. There may be few areas where new economic entities can be used to fill the pits of historical buildings.

Hope to adopt, thank you.

4. Pull something else, China's land rent.

As we know, a house, as an asset, will depreciate. The soaring housing prices have nothing to do with "housing" in essence, but the growth of land prices.

However, the housing "land" in China is actually a 70-year long-term lease contract.

Since the land price is so unstable, why pay the land transfer fee for 70 years at a time? Wouldn't it be better for the government to collect taxes for five years?

The last time I came into contact with this view from an official government research institution, I was terrified. . I can't help praising our government's ability to collect rent.

In fact, this idea is unlikely to be put into practice, because "people have no perseverance without continuous production."

Hope to adopt, thank you.