First of all, briefly review the market in May. 1) In the 18 trading days in May, with May 15 as the dividing point, the previous six trading days all received 6 consecutive years, and the trading volume decreased day by day; After 12 trading days, the volume increased steadily. This market situation in May shows that even if the short-term market situation is unprecedentedly severe, the stock funds are still unwilling to go out, and the incremental funds are cautious in entering the market, which does not reproduce the phenomenon that the market turns better after a sharp drop and the off-exchange funds flock in; 2) Throughout May, the large-cap stocks of state-owned enterprises, with the steel sector as the main force, performed exceptionally strongly, and the large-cap stocks of state-owned enterprises initially got rid of the market image of "old, big, heavy (heavy) and low (price)"; 3) After the market rebounded, the 5-day moving average quickly hooked up, which formed a strong technical support for the stock index, and the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high almost every day.
Second, a preliminary discussion on the nature of the market in May this year. The author's conclusion is that the market up to 1880 is still a recovery market. Based on the following three points: First, the current market is mainly driven by plate rotation. After the adjustment of network stocks and the compensation of low-priced stocks and blue-chip stocks, the average increase of each plate in the market is almost equal. This phenomenon that almost all stocks have reached a higher level can only be understood as a recovery market; Secondly, if1mid-February 1993 Shanghai Composite Index 1559 is regarded as the high point, it will take six years to see the new high of 1756 in the market of 199. In other words, in the past six years, the Shanghai Composite Index has actually only "grown" by less than 200 points. In recent years, a large number of new shares have been listed, and the rights issue has never stopped, and more and more new shares have been issued. The market is in the fastest expansion period in history, and the stock index has lagged behind. Third, the stock index is heavy, is there a pull in funds? This was understandable before 1999, but since 1999, with the seventh interest rate cut, the introduction of interest tax, and the entry of three types of enterprises, institutional investors have grown from small to large, strategic investors have grown from scratch, the stock market capital supply is unprecedented, and the recovery market has sufficient living water.
In addition, judging from the positioning of the major market sectors at present, it is difficult to point out which sector is positioned too high, whether it is network technology stocks representing new forces or other technology stocks representing traditional concepts, large-cap stocks of state-owned enterprises, low-priced third-tier stocks, and newly active new shares, all within a fairly reasonable range.
Third, the technical aspect shows that there was a breakthrough in May. Marked by the new high closing price of 1855 on May 24th, the market completed a thrilling jump in May. By yesterday, not only did the stock index stabilize at a historical high, but the 5 10 and 30-day moving averages also hit record highs. At the same time, the technical side reminds us that the number of chips held by institutions has increased unprecedentedly, because the trend in March and April can be regarded as objectively clearing up floating chips, and the turnover rate of retail investors is much faster than that of institutions, so the concentration of chips in many stocks has been greatly improved, which is also the fundamental reason for the market operation to be stable in the next step.
Iv. Market trend in June and operation suggestions. The market will continue to climb in June. First, since May 15, the Shanghai Composite Index has been 8 positive and 4 negative. Who interpreted this short market at the seemingly most dangerous moment in the market? Undoubtedly, institutional investors. Then, because there is no handicap feature of high distribution in recent days, the main institutions remain in the venue; Second, from the weekly K-line of individual stocks, less than a quarter of the stocks are in the historical high zone, while more than a third of the stocks are in the historical low zone. Even Laigang, Sundiro, Shenma Industry, etc. , recently performed well, not out of the bottom. A large number of stocks start the market at a low level, which means it is self-evident; Third, from the perspective of handicap, network technology stocks have stopped falling and stabilized, while new shares and blue-chip stocks have gradually strengthened, while concepts such as the West and WTO still need to be deeply explored. The fundamental changes and trends of large-cap stocks of state-owned enterprises dominated by the steel sector are highly harmonious, which is the most obvious market for recovery and will not be deeply adjusted in the short term. All these factors determine that the market will continue to rise.
At present, it can be judged that the time span of the market will be longer, so it is unlikely that the market will accelerate upward in June, and it may still be dominated by shocks. In view of the characteristics of stock rotation and long-term operation of the main force, investors are advised to hold shares patiently and buy every stock. Selling chips at the high position that has already appeared is not the most important. The most important thing is to seize the rare callback opportunity to buy stocks. In this case, we will not miss the opportunity because of the short-term retracement in the process of volatility. Borrow an ancient poem, "You don't need to return in a bitter wind and rain", and taste it with investors.