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It is estimated that the minimum purchase price of rice in China will be stable in 20 16.

Agricultural source: Time: 201510/23/0/04 Editor: China Business Information Network.

Traditional comments

It has been 12 years since China implemented the policy of minimum purchase price of rice in 2004. Since 2008, the minimum purchase price of rice has been raised for seven consecutive years. The minimum purchase price policy effectively protects farmers' interests and promotes the continuous bumper harvest of rice production in China, but it also leads to the "three highs" phenomenon of high yield, high import and high inventory in the domestic rice market, which is aggravated with the continuous implementation of the minimum purchase price policy and is unlikely to be effectively solved in the short term.

It is expected that the minimum purchase price of rice will remain stable next year.

On the one hand, domestic price increases remain at a low level. In September, the CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in August, and returned to "1 times"; In September, PPI decreased by 5.9% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with negative growth for 43 consecutive months.

The decline of CPI increase, especially the continuous decline of PPI, has also caused the increase of agricultural production costs to fall, and even the decline of rice planting costs in some areas. In addition to labor and land transfer costs, other production costs, such as fertilizers, pesticides and diesel, are steadily declining.

At present, the production cost of rice remains relatively stable, and farmers' planting income can basically be guaranteed. It is unlikely that the minimum purchase price of rice will continue to increase next year.

On the other hand, the minimum purchase price of 20 16 wheat remains unchanged at the level of 20 15, and the minimum purchase price of wheat has not been raised for two consecutive years. Wheat and rice are the main rations, the price relationship is relatively stable, and the linkage effect is also strong. Because the minimum purchase price policy of wheat was announced earlier, it has a guiding effect on the minimum purchase price of rice. At present, the prices of wheat and rice are still lower than the historical average, and the minimum purchase price of 20 16 wheat has not been further raised, so it is unlikely to raise the minimum purchase price of rice alone.

Areas with better rice planting benefits may increase.