Talking about the whole vehicle industry: From the recent Chengdu Auto Show, there are many new hard-core SUVs, and hard-core SUVs show signs of returning. What's your opinion?
A: Indeed, few hard-core SUV models (especially in styling) appeared in Chengdu Auto Show recently, such as Great Wall Haval Dog, Great Wall WEY Tank 300, Beijing J80, Wuling Hongguangxia and so on. Why hard-core SUV models have recently returned to the market (including Land Rover Defender, Ford Mustang and Jeep Shepherd). It depends on the development history of MPV, SUV and hard-core SUV models, as well as the trend and maturity of market changes.
First of all, from the perspective of the history of MPV, in the 1980s, Lee Iacocca, the new president of Chrysler (Lee? Iacocca) In order to save Chrysler and restart its glory, according to market research, we grasped the market demand for a family van (due to the needs of economic/social/activity development and family population composition, the van at that time was mainly freight, which was no longer suitable for the development of the situation), and in June1983165438+/kloc-0. Passengers? A van/minivan? –? Commonly known as mini van or mini plane/minivan, early MPV, as shown)? –? Plymouth? Navigator/Plymouth Jielong and Dodge? RV/Dodge collar. As it met the demand and catered to the market, the minivan was a great success as soon as it was launched? –? Saved Chrysler from bankruptcy. ? In Europe, Renault launched a similar model at 1984, called MPV (multi-purpose? Vehicle/utility vehicle). Since then, there has been another species in the global automobile market? –? MPV. Chrysler also set a profit record of $2.4 billion in 1984, and Lee Iacocca successfully saved Chrysler? .
Similarly, in the 1990s, after market research, Ford found that people liked the inherent advantages of off-road/hard-core jeeps, but there was no jeep with off-road function and multi-purpose suitable for urban types. To this end, Ford seized the opportunity of market demand and offered its off-road vehicle Bronco? On the basis of II,1March, 990, the world's first mass-produced urban jeep with off-road function, multi-purpose/non-loaded body: explorer/explorer, what's its name? –? Exercise? Utility? Vehicle /SUV (as shown). Ford Explorer, who redefined SUV, once launched, detonated the urban SUV market, became a leader, led the trend of urban SUV, and also led the trend of American (and later global) SUV, making SUV become a Volkswagen model from a niche model, and gradually dominated the market, swept the world, and started the global SUV trend for 30 years. At present, Ford Explorer, as a medium and large SUV, has sold more than 8 million vehicles worldwide, with an average annual sales of about 270,000 vehicles in 30 years, setting a world record and becoming the best-selling medium and large SUV model in the world and the United States.
Similarly, in the mid-1990s, Ford saw a new market demand, and the market needed a new MPV, especially in terms of styling and function/performance? –? The market needs more fashionable shapes and safer MPV(MPV is often used by housewives to take their families/children to participate in various extracurricular activities and travel, etc. ). To this end, 1994, Ford introduced the world's first MPV with modern/innovative styling style and 5-star collision standard. –? Wind Star/Shengda or Wind Star (pictured). Since then, Ford Wind Star/Shengda has led/opened the new generation (or the second generation in the world) MPV modeling and function/performance, and has been used for reference by global MPVs. 1996 Chevrolet Venture Capital launched by GM (later became? –? Buick GL8), Chrysler and 1996 also introduced the new Plymouth Jetron and Dodge Ling Kai with similar modeling trends.
Similarly, Toyota/Lexus sees another market segment demand, a market segment demand of high-end/luxury customers-more like an SUV of a car (discovering/developing/leading potential user groups). To this end, Lexus launched/listed the world's first more SUV(RX300, pictured) at 1997? –? Cross-border SUV, also known as CUV (sedan/cross-border? Utility? Vehicles) or SLV (sports? Luxury? Ten years later, in 2007, BMW introduced the first crossover/back-sliding/hatchback X6, developed the CUV/SLV, and formed its own SAC(Sport? Activities? Coupe) has triggered more car companies to develop various forms of cross-border SUVs, and new species coupe SUVs are constantly emerging.
The development of SUV has gone through four stages: jeep/ off-road (tough guy), urban/off-road SUV (travel, travel, towing, off-road), crossover/car chassis/platform SUV (car comfort and SUV space/vision), coupe SUV (coupe modeling and minimum SUV height, emphasizing modeling and personal style). The above four market segments of SUV have their own user groups (including economy, family structure/demand and lifestyle, personal style/characteristics, etc. The changes of these groups are related to socio-economic development, urban development and regional development.
The development of domestic MPV has also experienced a similar stage, but it is different. ? Take MPV as an example. In the early China market, mini-vans (hereinafter referred to as "mini-cars" or later "mini-cars") mainly borrowed Japanese modeling/structural methods (Tianjin Dafa, etc.). ), and since the 1980s, it has experienced Jilin Automobile (there are also hafei automobile in the north), Tianjin mini-car and Chongqing Chang 'an (the sales volume has been ahead for about 65,438+05 years, 65,500). Gm-Wuling launched China's first compact commercial vehicle (China MPV) on September 6th, 20 10. Wuling Hong Guang officially started the journey of domestic MPV. With the continuous upgrading of MPV, MPV can also be roughly divided into commercial MPV, urban MPV and rural MPV.
The development of domestic SUV has experienced a similar stage to that of foreign countries. Great Wall Motor, the pioneer of SUV development in China, first introduced non-loaded body and off-road SUV models on May 26th, 2002? –? Saif ranked the top three in the SUV market that year. In 2005, Great Wall launched the first urban SUV or CUV (predecessor of Haval H3/H5). Great Wall H5 20 10 is listed, and Great Wall H6 20 1 1 is listed. March 20 13, Great Wall Haval SUV was established independently, and Great Wall Motor SUV entered the era of Haval brand. 20 16 great wall launches high-end brand SUV? –? WEY，20 17 WEY？ VV5( 12.08？ -? 142,800 yuan) and vv7 (1698-188,800 yuan) began to be listed one after another. Recently, a new generation of Haval H6 was launched with a wheelbase of 2738mm. At present, there are still two SUV models of Great Wall Motor. One is urban SUVs, such as H6 and H8. One is off-road (non-load-bearing), such as H5 (10.78- 136800 yuan) and H9 (209836800 yuan).
From the development history of SUV of Great Wall Motor and other car companies, it has also experienced four stages of development: off-road, urban, cross-border and coupe SUV.
Vehicle industry gossip: from the development history of multi-purpose vehicles at home and abroad, what is the future development trend of MPV? What do you think?
A: Judging from the sales volume of MPV in the past three years, its total sales volume has been declining continuously. As shown in the table, it seems that the market growth potential is not great. But what about market segmentation? -? High-end MPV (including luxury models, such as Mercedes-Benz, Lexus and Toyota Erffa). ), their monthly and cumulative market share has greatly improved, from about 7% in 20 17 to about 20% in 2020. Take GM GL8 as an example. As can be seen from the table below, its monthly and cumulative market share has been increasing. Even if affected by the epidemic in 2020, the market share in June+0-6/June +0-7, 2008 is increasing. In July 2020, the market share of MPV has reached 20%, and the cumulative market share from June to July has reached 65,438+05%. Although the MPV market share of Wuling Hong Guang declined, it remained basically stable.
Vehicle industry gossip: Judging from the above data, the market demand for mid-to high-end MPVs still has great potential. Where are the opportunities? Can you give further comments?
A: As mentioned earlier, the American economy has developed to a certain extent. Ford led MPV by going up one flight of stairs in 1994, and the whole people upgraded MPV in an all-round way, such as the current GL8 level. China's economy has developed to a certain extent, but the supply of upgraded China brand MPV can't keep up with the market demand, which is why the mid-to-high-end/luxury MPV market is still growing. Another misunderstanding is that high-end MPVs must be commercial vehicles, but in fact, MPVs such as GL8 (Chrysler Dodge? Caravan/Dodge Ling Kai, Toyota Sienna, Honda Odyssey, etc. ) are MPVs for all families. However, due to the different national conditions in China, commercial MPV, urban MPV and rural MPV appeared. It is estimated that the MPV market in GL8 cities has great potential, especially in the urban areas of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. If a China brand MPV reaches GL8 level, but the price is very competitive, the price of civilians and the luxurious experience, it will definitely be a hot-selling MPV.
Vehicle industry gossip: back to the previous question, why have some car companies recently started to list some hard-core SUV models? Where are their market opportunities? Hard-core SUV sales have been poor in recent years. What's your opinion?
A: Indeed, the sales of hard-core SUVs have been poor in recent years. It is reported that from 2007 to now, the sales proportion of hard-core off-road vehicles in the SUV market has gradually dropped from 265,438+0% to 2%. However, with the continuous improvement of the maturity of the SUV market, consumers have a clearer understanding of the types and functions/performances of SUVs.
As mentioned earlier, the SUV market in China has also experienced four stages of development, namely, off-road, urban SUV (urban+off-road), cross-border CUV and coupe SUV. However, in recent years, the off-road performance of urban SUVs has become less and less, and even some urban SUVs can be considered as MPV, or there is no obvious difference between them. However, manufacturers tend to be SUVs in styling design and classify them as SUVs, so that they can have considerable sales with the help of the hot market trend of SUVs. This kind of SUV ignores the inherent advantages of SUV, such as off-road performance. When some auto companies realize this, they will re-stimulate consumers' understanding and demand for off-road functions/performance of SUVs from the off-road perspective, and launch hard-core SUVs.
However, the pure hard-core SUV also has its own limitations, which is why Ford Explorer was born in the 1990s and led the global SUV trend (urban+off-road). The current problem is that some or quite a few SUVs have "forgotten" and "weakened" off-road performance, which is a problem. ? However, pure hard-core SUVs, especially non-loaded SUVs, are niche models after all, and their handling and comfort are not perfect. In addition to "enthusiasts", the use of off-road performance is limited, but it has to be prepared for a rainy day.
"Vehicle Industry Miscellaneous Talk": Indeed, for SUV consumers, off-road performance has to be prepared, and it is also a good helper for traveling, dragging and pulling goods. What kind of SUV has good performance in both urban and off-road fields, and what is its market potential and future trend?
A: At present, the medium-sized SUV Hongqi HS5 and the medium-sized SUV Ford Explorer, which are very popular in sales, have good urban and off-road performance (as shown in the table). As shown in the data in the table, the approach angle and departure angle of the red flag HS5 are the largest, from the perspective of body structure.
Overall, the off-road performance is the best, and Ford Sharp ranks second. The approach angle and departure angle of Red Flag HS5 and Ford Sharp are both greater than 20. As far as medium and large SUVs are concerned, as shown in the table, the approach angle and departure angles of Toyota Prado and Ford Explorer are both greater than 20. As shown by the sales data and approach angle/departure angle data in the table, it shows that SUV consumers are still concerned about the off-road performance of SUVs. This also explains from another angle why the new SUV models Hongqi HS5 (listed for more than a year) and Ford Explorer (just listed for a month) sell well. The future trend is that SUV sales with both urban use and off-road performance will be the best.
Off-road performance of SUV is indeed an important feature of SUV, but there seems to be no unified standard for off-road performance in the industry. How to judge the off-road performance of SUV, what is the standard, and what do you think?
A: Because the off-road function/performance of SUV is constantly changing, there is no unified standard in the industry at present. The off-road function/performance of special SUV is also related to various system parameters of the whole vehicle, such as the geometric structure parameters of the body? -? Approach angle, departure angle, ground height, loaded and unloaded body; Power system parameters? –? Power, torque, drive form, drive control strategy, front and rear differential/locking, etc. However, the geometric structure parameter of the car body is a basic parameter and an intuitive parameter that consumers can measure. Approach angle and departure angle are the most core and basic parameters in the geometric structure parameters of car body. Approach angle, the departure angle is small, no matter how strong the power system is.
As far as the load-bearing or non-load-bearing body is concerned, due to the progress of modern body structure design, especially the progress of body materials, the stiffness and strength of the body can be designed according to the off-road function/performance to meet most off-road functions/performance. Therefore, as far as I am concerned, only when the approach angle and departure angle of the SUV are greater than 20 can the SUV have the foundation of off-road function/performance, so as to complete off-road projects, such as crossing the Butterfly Valley and the Cannonball Pit and climbing the 36 steep slope or the 42 steep slope. It can be regarded as an SUV with off-road function/performance, and it can be called an urban off-road SUV (for urban use? +? Off-road performance), otherwise it is just a crossover SUV(MPV/ sneak back? +? SUV modeling), or coupe SUV (car/coupe? +? SUV styling). If the approach angle and departure angle of SUV are greater than 25, its off-road function/performance is close to that of traditional hard-core SUV.
Car industry gossip: The important parameters/characteristics of SUV off-road performance were discussed earlier. An excellent urban SUV should also pay attention to handling, comfort and other attributes. What's your opinion?
Answer: The design of pure off-road SUV emphasizes off-road function/performance, while cross-border SUV emphasizes comfort and SUV modeling, while urban SUV should not only have excellent comfort, handling and power, but also have excellent off-road performance (within the scope of urban SUV, it can complete projects such as "cannonball pit", "Butterfly Valley" and "36 and 42 steep slopes"). Therefore, it is necessary to design. Take Ford Explorer as an example, in addition to its off-road design and technology (approach angle and departure angle greater than 22), there are seven road driving modes, including snow, sand and wet. ), its power system ("double hundred" index? -? 100 km acceleration, 100 km fuel consumption), control system (50:50 body weight distribution/proportion, etc. ), comfort system (Danish b&; O audio) and so on are also in a leading position in their respective market segments. More importantly, Ford Explorer is very cost-effective? –? Civilian price, luxury car experience (whether off-road or urban use, luxury SUVs can compete directly with Ford explorers). Similarly, so is the red flag HS5.
What are the potential of China brand SUV in the design and manufacture of urban/off-road SUVs and hard-core SUVs? What's your opinion?
A: The design/technology of China brand city/off-road SUVs and hard-core SUVs still has potential for improvement. Especially in power and control. Take the recently returned hard-core SUV Beijing J80 as an example. Its power system is equipped with 3.0T? The V6 engine has a maximum power of 206kW and a maximum torque of 420N·m, which is matched with an 8-speed automatic manual transmission. The 2.3T engine is also optional (power 170kW and torque of 345Nm). The online article compares Beijing J80 and Mercedes-Benz G500, especially the body size and shape, as follows (the powertrain and Ford Explorer are added here for reference):
As far as the power system is concerned, Mercedes-Benz G500 is an engine: 4.0T? V8 (power 3 10kW, torque 6 10N? M). Ford Explorer also has only one engine: 2.3T? L4 (power 203kW, torque 425N? M). Beijing J80? 3.0T？ Is V6 engine weaker than Mercedes G500? 4.0T？ V8, and Ford Explorer 2.3T? L4 is equivalent. But what about Beijing J80? 2.3T？ L4 (power 170kW, torque 345N? M) 2.3T weaker than Ford Explorer? L4 (power 203kW, torque 425N? M). According to online reports, Haval Big Dog /WEY Tank 300 is expected to provide two engine options? -? 1.5T and 2.0T (power 180kW, torque 380N? m)，？ Match 9DCT transmission.
Write at the end: At present, with the continuous maturity of the automobile market, multi-purpose vehicles in various market segments are gradually returning to the essence, and the characteristic trend will be more distinct. For example, MPV should reflect the characteristics of MPV. As mentioned above, the market share of the corresponding mid-to-high-end/luxury MPV has increased year after year. If GL8 MPV returns to China and the price is competitive, this market segment will break out. Even at present, high-end/luxury MPVs are selling well or in short supply, such as Toyota Erffa, Lexus LM and Mercedes-Benz V series. The best sales potential of MPV is the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the western region.
Hard-core SUV, urban off-road SUV or urban SUV, cross-border SUV or CUV, coupe SUV or RUV will all have their own market segments and customer groups. In addition to further improving power, handling and comfort, urban off-road SUV will return to off-road performance in emergency situations such as driving, traveling, off-road, towing, and escape. Approach angle and departure angle of urban off-road SUV should be greater than 20 (only in this way can it be classified as urban off-road SUV, otherwise it can only be included in the scope of cross-border SUV). Urban off-road SUV (for urban use? +? Off-road performance), cross-border SUV(MPV/ slip back+? SUV modeling), coupe SUV (car/coupe? +? The approach angle and departure angle of SUV are greater than 20, which is also to avoid the "climbing door" that Highlander (approach angle 18, departure angle 17) encountered in previous years (see online news).
Due to the progress of technology, the traditional load-bearing or non-load-bearing body is no longer the key to off-road Therefore, the market segments of off-road SUVs in medium and large cities with the same power, handling, comfort and off-road performance will have significant (perhaps explosive) growth. The region/city market with the best sales potential of urban off-road SUV is the western region, especially Chengdu-Chongqing and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xi, Henan and Northeast China.
Whether it can become an excellent urban off-road SUV or not, some basic parameters are very important. Taking off-road SUVs in large and medium-sized cities as an example, consumers of vehicle power system perceive the "double hundred" index (100 km acceleration, reference value? -? Equal to or less than 7.7 seconds; Fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, reference value? -? 8.8 liters and below), engine power technical index (maximum power, reference value? –? Equal to or greater than 200 kilowatts; ; ? Maximum torque, reference value? –? Equal to or greater than 400Nm), the "double angle" index of body geometry/structure (approach angle, reference value? –? Greater than 20; ? Departure angle, reference value? –? More than 20, which are the satisfactory parameters of medium and large luxury SUVs with urban off-road characteristics, such as BMW X3 and X5, Audi Q7, Mercedes-Benz GLC and GLE). At the same time, the maximum power of the engine reaches or exceeds 200kW, the maximum torque reaches or exceeds 400Nm, and the approach angle/departure angle reaches or exceeds 20, which are also the indexes that all excellent urban off-road SUVs should refer to. ? Of course, an excellent urban off-road SUV should also have excellent handling (steering, extreme handling) and comfort (driving comfort, NVH, temperature control system, sound system and so on. ).
Note: Pictures and data come from the Internet.
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