Hefei took the lead in 2007, taking out one-third of the city's fiscal revenue to gamble on the panel industry and invest in BOE. For the second time, more than 20 17,10 billion bet on semiconductors, and invested in Changxin/Zhao Yi Innovation. The so-called third time is in 2020, and the new energy will cost 654.38+000 billion. After several consecutive operations, the total GDP of Hefei ranked 2 1 in China with 940.9 billion yuan, compared with 32.5 billion yuan 20 years ago.
Let's analyze the first two "big bets". At that time, it was not an advance to invest in BOE panels, because the panel industry itself was very mature, and the only difference was that it was the first generation line. The trick of panel investment industry is "a lot of money+a huge market". So Hefei at that time was not a "gambling game". At the same time, Beijing and Chengdu introduced panel production lines. The fundamental reason for Hefu's success on the panel is that BOE has used the huge domestic market and huge manufacturing scale to force upstream system design and key component manufacturers to lower their status. In other words, it is the huge domestic market that gives BOE a monopoly against Japanese and Korean manufacturers of upstream technology schools.
Ok, let's look at the story of Hefu Investment Changxin again. Chang Xin makes memory chips. Is the memory stick important? Of course, memory is the link between CPU and external memory, and it is the warehouse where computers temporarily store data. Changxin/Zhao Yi innovation has broken the monopoly of international giants such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, which is certainly a good thing.
However, is the memory chip the most important part of the computer system? No, it's CPU This is an arithmetic and processing chip. In other words, Hefei invested in the more important but not the core computer system field.
Hefu's bet on JD.COM and Changxin was "successful". In the current environment, the signal is that the government can support investment and huge subsidies through industrial investment funds, and then make profits through listing. Is the familiar smell back? Isn't it the same thing to turn the local government into an investment company when the secretary is the chairman and the mayor is the general manager?
The question is: do we suffer less from this?
I'll tell you only one story. In 2009, with the investment of 4 trillion yuan, the photovoltaic industry became the hottest industry at that time. At that time, the richest man in China was Shi, the head of Wuxi Suntech. Once upon a time, the photovoltaic industry was the star industry in the planning of each development zone, and almost all local officials were looking for photovoltaic enterprises, even if they were supporting, surrounding and related. However, in less than three years, with the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the demand for photovoltaics has fallen sharply, export subsidies have decreased, and the industry has shrunk rapidly.
On March 20 13, Wuxi suntech, the leading photovoltaic industry in China, went bankrupt and reorganized.
History is always repeating itself, and countless scholars are warning local governments not to embark on the old road of blind investment, redundant construction and overcapacity again. However, whenever new investment opportunities appear, local governments can't help but take a hand, add fire and step on oil. Since 20 18, the investment value of integrated circuit industry (chips) has been highlighted under the background of Sino-US confrontation, so countless "chip enterprises" have emerged all over the country. It is in this context that Hefei has a long history of investment and has been established as a model, even being rated as "the best venture capitalist".
The question is: Should direct investment in industries become the goal of local governments?
In fact, it is not local governments, especially municipal governments, that should be the best venture capitalists. The new national system is to tackle key problems in the most critical areas, in areas where the market is unwilling to invest, and in areas that are really related to the national economy and people's livelihood. CPU, mask aligner, Hangfa and five-axis machine tools are the fields. But the new national system is not simply a matter of investing some money, but the state organizes scientific and technological departments to tackle key problems. This is a solid and inseparable technical scheme. Because, for such a complex giant system as mask aligner, there is only one way to catch up with or even surpass technology. At that time, we made a complete and systematic national alliance with the method of "two bombs and one satellite" to tackle key problems and cooperate with each other. Gambling locally? This method doesn't work, this strength is not enough, and this logic is unreasonable.
Last question: Did Hefei's gamble succeed?
To judge whether local governments are responsible, we should not only look at industrial development, but also look at people's livelihood and well-being. In 20 10, Hefei's per capita disposable income was 9684 yuan, ranking 90th in the national prefecture-level cities. In 2020, it will reach 45,404, ranking 49th. 20 10, compared with Dongguan with the highest per capita income, Hefei's disposable income is about 40%. By 2020, the disposable income of Hefei will be about 60% of that of Shanghai with the highest per capita income.
So, has Hefei made progress in the past ten years? Progress has been made. Is it that good? No, because everyone is making progress. Take Changsha for example. From 20 10 to 2020, the per capita disposable income will rise from 37 to 2 1. You know, the higher the ranking, the harder it is to move forward. Hefei is more like a vibrant junior high school student, and there is still a long way to go.
In my opinion, Hefei really laid the foundation for success, not because of the so-called "gamble" again and again, but because it kept China University of Science and Technology with sincerity in such hard years. Why did Hefei become one of the three comprehensive national science centers in China? Because of HKUST of China Academy of Sciences and its related resources. Why did Hefei develop white goods cluster first, and why did it attract chip giants and new energy vehicles? Because even if more than half of the students of the Chinese University of Science and Technology go to the United States, there are always people who stay in this land, which is a resource that Hefei will always cherish.
To sum up:
1. The development of Hefei BOE and Changxin not only benefited from the local government, but also benefited from the huge domestic market and the background of Sino-US confrontation. There are both inevitability and contingency.
2. When local governments become investment companies, it is easy to embark on the old road of blind investment, redundant construction, overcapacity and high debt again. The lesson is profound and worth summarizing.
3. The technological breakthrough in key areas is not achieved by the "gamble" of local governments, but by joint national research under the new national system. What local governments need to do is to shape the business environment after these fields are basically mature.
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