(A) domestic reasons
1, long-term government policy orientation.
China's international balance of payments is unbalanced, and its foreign exchange reserves are constantly increasing, which is not formed overnight. Fundamentally speaking, it is caused by the imperfect export-oriented policy, foreign investment preference and market mechanism in the past 25 years. On the issue of international payments, the long-standing policy of the China government is to basically maintain a slight surplus in international payments; One year after the founding of New China, China's foreign exchange reserves were only US$ 6,543.8+57 million. Until the early 1990s, the shortage of foreign exchange almost became a normal situation in China. Therefore, the role of foreign exchange reserves has long been valued. It is believed that the more foreign exchange reserves in China, the better. Unless absolutely necessary, it will never be used easily. In foreign exchange policy, it is characterized by the implementation of compulsory settlement and sale of foreign exchange. At the same time, due to China's long-term export-oriented, foreign investment-oriented and "lenient entry and strict exit" foreign exchange policies since the reform and opening up, capital flows more easily, while outflows require layers of approval, resulting in a large current account surplus and an increasing number of FDI flows. The specific policies are as follows:
(1)1979-1987, the state takes overall responsibility for the profits and losses of foreign trade enterprises, and financial subsidies support the development of foreign trade. In the early days of reform and opening up, China's economy was inefficient. In order to cooperate with the policy of introducing foreign capital, the state has formulated a series of export-oriented trade strategies. In order to encourage and support enterprises to export, the government has implemented the export subsidy policy for foreign trade enterprises.
(2) 1988- 1993 combines the subsidy policy with the foreign trade contract management responsibility system to promote the development of foreign trade. Starting from 1988, the State Council has fully implemented the responsibility system for contracted management of foreign trade. At that time, the self-financing mechanism for foreign trade had not yet been established, and while implementing the contract system, the central government's subsidies for foreign trade were still retained.
(3) Since1994, the state has reformed the foreign exchange management system and used economic and legal means to promote the development of foreign trade. Especially after death, the state's support for foreign trade gradually changed from direct and indirect financial subsidies to integration with international rules, and gradually adjusted and promoted the development of foreign trade by means of tariffs, taxes and interest rates.
In addition, liberalize the right to operate foreign trade and expand the main body of foreign trade; Many preferential policies, including tax reduction and exemption, duty-free import and other preferential policies, have supported the development of China's foreign trade to some extent.
(4) Implement the export tax rebate policy to support the development of foreign trade. China has implemented the export tax rebate policy since April 1985. However, since July 2007, the policy has gradually weakened. Following the implementation of the new export tax rebate policy in July 1, on August 23rd, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued Announcement No.44 of the Catalogue of Goods Restricted by Processing Trade, and a total of 2,247 goods with Harmonized System codes were classified as goods restricted by processing trade. At the same time, it is required to implement the management of "real to real sales" for the processing trade of restricted commodities.
2. The contradiction between rapid economic development and lagging structural adjustment.
On June 5438+1October 65438+1October 9, 2007, Wu Xiaoling delivered a speech at the China exchange rate policy seminar hosted by Peterson Institute for International Economics, saying that China's high foreign trade surplus is a reflection of China's internal economic imbalance, which is caused by structural problems of high savings, high investment and low consumption. In the past 20 years, supported by high savings rate and high investment rate, China's economy grew at an average annual rate of over 9%. At the same time, the economic structure has also undergone profound changes. However, due to historical and institutional reasons, the pace of structural adjustment is often backward. Especially in recent years, after the basic living needs of domestic residents have been met and the industrial development has reached a new level, there has been a surplus of goods, capital and labor market. The production structure can't adapt to the change of demand structure, and can't meet various and multi-level demands, which leads to insufficient effective total demand, further causing employment difficulties and weak demand growth.
At the same time, there are still problems such as poor technological innovation ability, low added value of products, large regional gap and low level of urbanization. These all affect the expansion of domestic demand and the realization of internal balance. After many interest rate adjustments, the savings of China residents are still high. A country has more savings, but less effective investment and consumption. As a result, the surplus savings can only be transferred abroad, which will inevitably further expand the balance of payments surplus and thus continuously increase foreign exchange reserves. According to statistics, China's investment rate rose from 36.5% of 200 1 to 42.7% in 2006, while the consumption rate dropped from 6 1.4% to 50% in the same period. According to the World Development Indicators (2006) of the World Bank, in 2004, the average consumption rate of 150 countries and regions was 62% and the investment rate was 2 1%. Among them, the average consumption rate of low-income countries is 69%, and the investment rate is 23%; The average consumption rate of middle-income countries is 58%, and the investment rate is 26%. The average consumption rate of high-income countries is 63%, and the investment rate is 20%. It can be seen that the investment rate in China is higher than the global average by more than 20 percentage points, while the consumption rate is lower by more than 10 percentage points, and the consumption rate also shows a downward trend. The contribution rates of China's consumption, investment and net exports to GDP increased from 50%, 50. 1% and 0. 1% in 2006 to 38.9%, 40.7% and 20.4% respectively. It can be seen that investment and net export have become the two main factors driving China's rapid economic growth.
In addition, the production capacity, growth rate and opening-up degree of tradable goods sector are obviously faster than those of non-tradable goods sector, which has become the basis for export growth, trade surplus and continuous expansion of foreign exchange reserves. Products and services produced by the non-tradable goods sector are areas where domestic consumption demand is growing rapidly. However, compared with the tradable goods sector, China's non-tradable goods sector has low production efficiency and low openness, which can not meet the needs of domestic consumption demand growth and has become one of the main reasons for restraining domestic consumption growth.
3. The domestic exchange rate system lacks enough flexibility.
From 0994+65438+65438 to 10, the State Council decided to further reform China's foreign exchange management system, merge RMB exchange rates and implement a "single and managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand". However, the outbreak of 1997 Asian financial crisis hindered the reform of RMB exchange rate system, and the RMB exchange rate was under strong depreciation pressure. In order to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate system was forced to deviate from the original design intention of "managed floating exchange rate system" and gradually became a fixed exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar in disguise. On July 2, 2005, Kloc-0/,China carried out the exchange rate system reform again, and implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. However, due to China's strict foreign exchange control for a long time, according to the IMF's exchange rate system, compared with other countries, China's exchange rate system is still inflexible (see table 1).
A necessary condition for the double balance of payments surplus is the existence of an inelastic exchange rate system, because under the floating exchange rate system, the government does not intervene in the foreign exchange market, and the current balance of payments surplus (deficit) must be equal to the financial and capital balance of payments deficit (surplus), and the foreign exchange reserves will not change in principle. However, under the inflexible exchange rate system, in order to maintain a basically unchanged exchange rate level, the government must purchase foreign exchange supply that exceeds demand, otherwise the foreign exchange rate will fall and the local currency exchange rate will rise, and the result will be that the trade surplus and capital inflow will be converted into foreign exchange reserves. At present, China is facing the influx of hot money, so it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of hot money, stabilize market expectations and achieve orderly adjustment. Jiang Yong, director of the Economic Security Research Center of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that the current influx of hot money into China "is the most direct reason for the strong expectation of RMB appreciation by international capital, and the fundamental reason lies in the imbalance of China's trade structure and the relative inflexibility of the exchange rate mechanism." Therefore, under the inflexible exchange rate mechanism, "expected appreciation-local currency appreciation-further expected appreciation-local currency appreciation" will form a vicious cycle of local currency appreciation. Therefore, to change or standardize the flow of hot money, the most critical measures are to increase the flexibility of exchange rate mechanism, accelerate the pace of exchange rate reform, and implement a reasonable foreign exchange management system.
(2) International reasons
1, economic globalization and global industrial transfer and structural adjustment.
Economic globalization, global industrial transfer and structural adjustment are the important reasons for China's continuous surplus in international payments and increasing foreign exchange reserves. In 1990s, industrialized countries began a new round of industrial structure adjustment, optimization and upgrading, and transferred labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as textiles and clothing, plastic toys and electronic assembly to developing countries such as China. China's economy has just formed a basic opening trend, so it is naturally integrated into this world-wide industrial transfer. In recent years, the world economic recession and the bursting of the global high-tech bubble have further accelerated the global structural adjustment and industrial transfer. At the same time, China's opening to the outside world continues to expand, and China has gradually become one of the main destinations for international manufacturing transfer. Foreign-invested enterprises have become the main force in China's foreign trade development. From 198 1 to 1999, the average annual growth rate of China's exports is 12.9%, but the average annual growth rate of general trade exports is only 7.7%, which is lower than the average annual growth rate of GDP, while the average annual growth rate of processing trade exports is as high as 29.5. In 2005, China's total export volume was 762 billion US dollars, and processing trade accounted for about 55%. In 2006, China's total trade surplus was $654.38+0775 billion, of which the processing trade surplus was nearly $654.38+090 billion.
A large trade surplus makes foreign exchange reserves increase year by year, even now it is at a high level. Mr. Li Yang said: On the whole, China has a large trade surplus, but structurally, China only has a surplus with two countries and regions (the United States and the European Union) and a deficit with other countries. The trade surplus between China and the United States is not an exchange rate issue, but an economic structure issue. As a late-developing country, China is undergoing drastic economic restructuring, so it has quickly become a global manufacturing center.
2. Expected factors of RMB appreciation.
In recent years, the continuous sharp depreciation of the US dollar has brought great appreciation pressure to many Asian currencies linked to the US dollar or with a high proportion of the US dollar in the currency basket, especially the RMB. Urging RMB to appreciate will have a domino effect on the appreciation of Asian currencies. In recent years, the appreciation of RMB is still expanding. On the surface, from 1994 to 2003, the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by about 5%. If the price trend between different countries is taken into account, the real effective exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will appreciate by about 20%. Especially since July 2, 20051,the People's Bank of China officially announced the implementation of the floating exchange rate system with the market as the adjustment mechanism, the RMB is constantly releasing its flexibility. In recent two years, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 10% (as shown in figure 1).
In view of this, huge international hot money entered the domestic market through various channels, which set off a wave of RMB speculation. The relationship between RMB appreciation expectation and foreign exchange reserves is as follows: on the one hand, the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves leads to RMB appreciation expectation; On the other hand, the expectation of RMB appreciation has contributed to the increase of foreign exchange reserves. Due to the strong expectations of foreign investors for RMB appreciation, a large amount of hot money flowed into the capital market, resulting in the current stock market bubble. At the same time, due to foreign investors' expectation of RMB appreciation, investment flows inward, while domestic investors should have diversified their portfolios and can flow capital to Japan, the United States, Europe and other places. However, the appreciation of RMB leads to an increase in the expected return of domestic stock market, and the restrictions on investing abroad make domestic stock market the main investment target, which also aggravates the formation of domestic asset bubble. /kloc-for more than 0/8 years, China's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus is far greater than the trade surplus, and the transfer income has increased significantly.
3. Unreasonable international financial system.
The current international financial system was gradually formed after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and its irrationality is mainly manifested in three aspects: fragile international monetary system, narrow international financial hegemony and disorderly flow of international financial capital. The fragile international monetary system and narrow financial hegemony are the main manifestations of the disorder of the international financial system, and they are also the root of the continuous turmoil in the contemporary international financial system.
Under the current international monetary system, because there is no real lender of last resort, a country has a financial crisis, and no one can actually help it, especially a developing country like China. Therefore, in order to guard against financial risks, developing countries have to accumulate a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. By the end of July, 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$ 65,438+0.4 trillion. If this pattern may cause some unreasonable allocation of resources, then its root cause is the current international financial system and the current unreasonable world economic pattern.