202 1-04-30 answer
Jiangtong's share price will hit a record high.
In 2007, the historical highest price of Jiangtong Copper was 78.5 yuan, which was never seen again in 14 years. Is there any hope for Jiangtong to hit a record high? Personally, I think the answer should be yes from the long-term development trend. The reasons for supporting Jiangtong's share price to hit a record high in the future are as follows:
1. The consumption of copper will continue to increase in the next few years, which will inevitably lead to the all-round historical high of copper price in the next few years and will run at a high level for a long time.
1. Carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions will be one of the main management objectives of China and other governments in the next few years. China and the United States will fully cooperate on climate issues and jointly promote global carbon neutrality, which will inevitably lead to an increase in copper consumption.
2. There is a high probability that the new infrastructure plan in the United States will be successfully passed, which will also lead to an increase in copper consumption.
As traditionally the largest copper user and importer, China's copper consumption will not decrease in the next few years, but it is only a matter of how much it will increase.
Economic stimulus plans in Europe and other economies will also lead to an increase in copper consumption.
Second, the global currency overshoot will inevitably lead to an increase in commodity prices.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, governments all over the world have made the decision to release money, especially the United States. This global money supply is unprecedented at any time in history, and the surplus of money will inevitably bring about an all-round and sustained rise in bulk commodities. So far, there is no sign that the currency overshoot of the world's major economies has stopped. On the contrary, the United States, the world's largest economy, shows signs of continuing overshoot. Since last year, the reason for the rise of copper price is inflation, and the expectation of whether copper consumption will increase steadily has not been reflected. On the contrary, many experts believe that there is no reason to support the substantial increase in copper consumption.
Third, the reasons for the surge in copper prices in history
The vigorous development of infrastructure construction in China, the rapid expansion of real estate in China and the vigorous development of power grid in China have led to a sharp increase in copper consumption in China. The home ownership policy implemented in the United States at that time also led to a sharp increase in housing for several consecutive years, which led to an increase in copper consumption. China's two major economies are the fundamental reasons for the continuous sharp rise in copper prices.
Fourthly, the historical surge of Jiangtong's share price is not synchronous with the copper price, on the contrary, it is lagging behind.
Another important reason for that round of stock price rise is the lagging reaction of RMB appreciation and the performance of listed companies after copper price rise, which takes time to transmit to the stock price.
5. The internal logic supporting the record high of Jiangtong's share price.
1. Although China's economy has passed the period of rapid expansion, it can be expected that it will maintain a stable and high growth rate for a long time. The consumption of copper in China will only increase slowly, not decrease. There are many factors supporting the growth of copper consumption in China, so I won't elaborate here. It should be a high probability that the new infrastructure plan in the United States will be finally approved. According to Biden's plan, it will last for eight years, which will inevitably lead to the increase of copper consumption in the United States in the next few years and a new round of housing prosperity in the United States.
2. The global new energy revolution will inevitably lead to the simultaneous growth of global copper consumption.
3. Inflation is expected to be a long period, and copper is the best anti-inflation product.
4. RMB may enter a long period of appreciation, and imported inflation may be more serious than in history. Securities will guard against this, but I believe it will still appear.
As China is the largest copper user and importer, international speculators and the United States will inevitably give us eye drops and drive up the price of copper.
6. Jiangtong's own technology is also improving and its products are upgrading. Copper deep processing and high value-added products will also account for a larger proportion, and the company's benefits will be further improved with the technological progress of enterprises.