19 19, World War I broke out and Britain stopped implementing the gold standard.
1925, after the first world war, Britain hoped to embark on the road of recovery with the help of the gold standard system and restore the gold standard system.
193 1 year, the US 1929 economic crisis triggered the global economic depression, and Britain ended the gold standard.
1933, American president Roosevelt announced that the free trade and export of gold were prohibited, and asked the people to hand over all the gold to the bank. The United States abandoned the gold standard.
2. "Brinton Woods System"
1944, with the end of World War II, representatives of 44 countries gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, and some participating countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement the following year.
The core of the international economic system has changed from gold to dollars, supported by 75% of the world's gold reserves. The United States holds more than $20 billion in gold, but less than10 billion in debt, which can be described as its heyday.
The official price of $35 per ounce of gold continued until 1967. At that time, because the United States was mired in the Vietnam War, the huge fiscal deficit repeatedly hit the credibility of the dollar, and countries sold dollars and snapped up gold. With the deepening of the Vietnam War, the deterioration of the financial situation in the United States finally detonated the dollar crisis.
3.1March, 968, the global rush to buy gold led to a record number of transactions in the London gold market. The United States could no longer maintain the official price of gold, and finally had to announce the abandonment of the market supply of $35 per ounce. Since then, the price of gold has officially entered a free floating.
Seven years later, due to the deepening of the dollar crisis, western countries announced that they would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system. At this point, the Bretton Woods monetary system completely collapsed and gold embarked on the road of non-monetary reform.
But it didn't last long. The super-strong position of American economy has been eroded by 1960, and the current assets held by foreigners in that year have increased from $8 billion in 1950 to $20 billion. In other words, if all of them are converted into gold, America's gold reserves will bottom out.
4. 1967, France withdrew from the golden pool.
De Gaulle sided with the speculators' self-interest. Besides the United States, France has the most gold in the world. If it claims to raise the price of gold to $70 per ounce, France will make a lot of money.
As a result, the United States has unlimited use of dollars to make up for the balance of payments deficit, and the dollar has flooded, exporting domestic inflation and aggravating global inflation. When the United States lost a lot of gold, the material basis of the US dollar as an international reserve was greatly weakened. Finally, it cut off its fixed connection with gold, and the law of paper money circulation played a role. The dollar is bound to depreciate against gold, and the official price of 1 ounce of gold is already vulnerable.
5.1967165438+10/8. The pound depreciated for the second time after the war.
1March 968 17, the "golden pool" disintegrated.
August 8 1969, franc devaluation11.11%. ?
1971August 15, US President Nixon delivered a televised speech, closing the golden window and stopping governments or central banks from holding US dollars for gold. The dollar broke free from the cage of gold and floated freely in the foreign exchange market. At that time, the effect of this move was also to oppress West Germany and Japan to realize currency appreciation in order to improve the balance of payments of the United States.
6. Next, the price of gold is like a runaway horse in sturm und drang.
1972, the price of gold in the London market rose from $46 per ounce to $64.
1973, gold price exceeded 100 USD.
From 1974 to 1977, the price of gold fluctuated between 130 and 180.
1978, crude oil soared to $30 per barrel and gold price rose to $244.
1979, the price of gold rose to $500. On March 12 this year, the Statue of Liberty on the cover of Businessweek was in tears, with the title "The Decline of America". On June 5438+ 10, the inflation rate in the United States exceeded 12%, and gold became a powerful weapon against inflation.
7. 1980 is the year with the biggest fluctuation in the world gold market. After the Reagan administration came to power, it implemented a high interest rate policy, which made the exchange rate of the US dollar firm and dealt a great blow to gold investors.
The first contemporary gold bull market came to an end in 12 years. ? The price of gold rose from $35 in 1968 to $850 in 1980. During the period of 12, there is 30% interest every year.
1980 gold investment reached $65,438 +0.6 trillion, exceeding the market value of US stocks of only $65,438 +0.4 trillion. 1959 investment in gold is only one-fifth of the market value of US stocks.
The first modern gold bull market has ended for twelve years.
Unfortunately, in such a spectacular gold bull market, the real winners are the sellers who supply gold, such as gold miners. Just like the big bull market in various markets, watching more speculators may not necessarily make a lot of money. The price of gold rose from 35 dollars to 850 dollars. How imaginative! On the contrary, there are far more people chasing up at $850 than people buying and holding at $40.
Bernstein gave such an example. American Alaska Retirement Fund 1980 entered the market and bought a ton of gold at the price of 69 1. At the end of the same year, it bought another ton for $575. 1in March, 983, it sold gold at the price of 4 14 dollars.
The first modern gold bull market has ended for twelve years.
Extended data:
Judging whether the general trend of the gold market is upward or downward often requires fundamental analysis. There are many factors that affect the trend of gold price, and investors need to analyze them one by one to determine the main factors. The following will list the factors that have a great influence on the trend of international gold prices.
1, gold dollar
Because the international gold price is denominated in US dollars, the relationship between the trend of gold price and the trend of US dollar exchange rate has become very close. Historical data show that the two often interact in reverse. The dollar rose and gold fell; The dollar fell, while gold rose.
2. Gold price crude oil
The international crude oil price is also closely related to the gold market. As we all know, fighting inflation is a major function of gold, and the international crude oil price is closely related to the inflation level. Therefore, there is a positive interaction between the international gold price and the international crude oil price.
3. Commodity market
With the economic rise of BRIC countries, the demand for non-ferrous metals and other commodities is increasing day by day. Coupled with the speculation of international hedge funds, the prices of international commodities such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals have risen strongly since 200 1, and the high prices have attracted the attention of global economic circles.
4. Stock market
As can be seen from historical data, under normal circumstances, the trend of gold price is opposite to the economic situation and the trend of stocks. If the stock market is currently in a bull market and the prices of stocks and funds rise, it will take away a lot of gold investment, which means that the price of gold is likely to fall; If the current stock market is a bear market and the prices of stocks and funds are weak, investors will naturally leave and choose other investment channels. They may choose to invest in gold, which may push up the price of gold. This change reflects investors' expectations of the economic prospects. If investors expect a good economic development prospect and a prosperous stock market, they will naturally put more funds into the stock market, and the funds in the gold market will inevitably be affected.
5. Gold price and seasonal supply and demand of gold spot market.
The relationship between supply and demand is the basis of the market, and the price of gold is closely related to the supply and demand of the international gold spot market. The gold spot market often has a strong seasonal supply and demand law. The first half of the year is usually the off-season of spot consumption of gold. Judging from the data in recent years, the bottom of the gold price generally appears in the second quarter, but stimulated by consumption in developed countries in Europe and America, the spot demand for gold will gradually peak in the third quarter, making the gold price continue to rise.
6. Political turmoil
The international political situation and wars between countries often affect the price of gold. When there is political turmoil or war, economic development will be hit negatively, which will lead to inflation, and people will turn their attention to gold investment. At this time, the price of gold may rise sharply.
7. Central Bank
Central banks around the world are the biggest holders of gold. If central banks start selling gold, the price of gold will fall in the short term.
8. Financial crisis
When the financial crisis comes, people will feel that it is not safe to deposit money in the bank, so a lot of money will flock to other investment channels, such as buying gold. When the financial system of developed countries such as the United States is unstable, the price of gold is likely to rise. In 2007, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States led to a sharp rise in gold prices.
9. Inflation
If the price of a country is relatively stable, it means that the purchasing power of its currency is also stable. If a country experiences inflation, the purchasing power of its currency will decrease. At this time, market funds will turn to the gold market. Thereby pushing up the price of gold.
References:
Baidu encyclopedia-gold price