As the main raw material of polyurethane (PU), MDI is currently divided into pure MDI and polymeric MDI. In China, pure MDI is mainly used for PU slurry and PU sole stock solution (the total demand for both accounts for about 80%). With the rapid rise of domestic spandex industry in recent years, the demand for pure MDI is also increasing. Polymerized MDI is mainly used to produce rigid polyurethane foam and semi-rigid polyurethane foam. Widely used in refrigerators, insulation materials, automobiles and construction industries. Due to the rapid development of downstream industries, the annual demand growth rate of MDI is above 20%, and it is estimated that the demand will exceed 500,000 tons in 2005. Due to the wide application of MDI, strong growth of downstream demand and low concentration of buyers, some emerging industries, such as spandex industry, have high profits, low sensitivity to MDI prices and weak bargaining power of buyers.
Second, the bargaining power of suppliers.
The raw materials for MDI production are aniline, nitric acid, chlorine, caustic soda, etc. Its cost accounts for more than 60% of the manufacturing cost, in which aniline is the most important raw material. Because all raw materials including aniline are bulk chemical raw materials, the concentration of suppliers is low. According to the price of raw materials, suppliers can choose to purchase in domestic and foreign markets, and their bargaining power is poor.
Since the end of 2003, although the price of aniline has risen due to the rise of crude oil price, due to the strong position of MDI in the polyurethane industry chain, the cost can be completely passed on to the downstream. In 2004, the price of MDI kept rising, reaching the highest price of 50,000 yuan/ton from September to June. The year-on-year growth rate reached about 250%, far exceeding the growth rate of aniline of about 97%.
Third, the competition between existing competitors.
At present, only eight companies (yantai wanhua, Bayer, BASF, Huntsman, Dow, Japan NPU, Japan Mitsui and Jinhu Mitsui) can produce MDI, among which yantai wanhua is the only MDI manufacturer in China. Therefore, the industry is in a typical oligopoly competition state.
Although the global MDI production capacity grew at an average annual rate of 7.6% from 2004 to 2007, it still failed to keep up with the rapid growth of demand of 9% last year. MDI industry is still in the growth stage, and the degree of industry competition is low.
As far as the China market is concerned, there is only one company in yantai wanhua, and its direct competitors are seven other manufacturers in the world. Compared with peers, its competitiveness is beyond doubt. In 2003, the sales volume of MDI reached 84,000 tons, and the market share of China was 28%, ranking first in the industry. It is estimated that it will reach more than 65.438 billion tons in 2004. After 2006 and 2007, with the new MDI projects of 6,543.8+600,000 tons and 230,000 tons in yantai wanhua and BASF put into production, the domestic production capacity will reach 500,000 tons. According to the demand growth rate of 20%, it is estimated that the domestic demand in 2007 will be 720,000 tons. Although the domestic self-sufficiency rate will rise from the current 28% to 72%, and the tension between supply and demand will be alleviated, there are still some gaps that need to be supplemented by imports, and then the competition pattern of MDI industry will have new changes.
Fourth, potential new entrants.
Because MDI adopts liquid phase phosgene production process, including synthesis reaction, phosgenation reaction and other processes, it is not only technically difficult, but also requires effective control of chlorine and toxic phosgene, and the entry threshold is extremely high. In addition to the above manufacturers, it is difficult for new manufacturers to enter.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) substitution competition
Although TDI and MDI are the main raw materials of polyurethane, their subdivision uses are quite different because of their different structures and properties. Polymerized MDI is mainly used in polyurethane rigid foam and semi-rigid foam, and is used in thermal insulation materials, auto parts and construction industries. TDI is mainly used in polyurethane soft foam, furniture filler, sound-absorbing materials and toys. At the same time, due to the toxicity of TDI, its application is limited to a certain extent, which is far less extensive than MDI. Therefore, from the current situation, MDI, as one of the essential raw materials of polyurethane, has no ideal substitute.
Through the analysis of five forces in MDI industry, it can be seen that MDI has strong bargaining power in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and there are extremely high technical barriers, so the threat from potential entrants and substitutes is very low. When the demand is far greater than the supply, the competition is not fierce and the product profit rate is high. Therefore, it can be expected that this trend of high profits will continue in the next two years.