In recent years, the rapid increase in the prices of grain and agricultural products has stimulated the demand for chemical fertilizers in China. 20 1 1 year, the fertilizer industry achieved an output value of 727.438 billion yuan and a profit of 44.4 billion yuan. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer realized a profit of 654.38+03.6 billion yuan, phosphorus fertilizer realized a profit of 4.5 billion yuan, and the industry sales profit rate increased to 5.7%. The fertilizer industry has completed investment of125.3 billion yuan, with 1833 projects under construction and 1284 new projects.
From 20 12 to 1- 10, the fertilizer industry realized a total profit of 35.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, the total profit of nitrogenous fertilizer enterprises was11800 million yuan, up1/0.6% year-on-year, accounting for 33.5% of the total profit of chemical fertilizers; Total profit of compound fertilizer enterprises/kloc-0.09 billion yuan, accounting for 30.9%.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the development goal of China's fertilizer industry is to meet the needs of agriculture and industry and maintain self-sufficiency in production capacity. Among them, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers are mainly self-sufficient, and a small amount is exported. The guarantee rate of potassium fertilizer is above 60%, which basically meets the needs of scientific fertilization. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the total demand for chemical fertilizers was 65.8 million tons, including 43.5 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, 0.4 million tons of phosphate fertilizer/kloc and 7.7 million tons of potash fertilizer. Generally speaking, the chemical fertilizer industry in China will continue to develop.
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Since May, the domestic compound fertilizer market has entered the best period of the year, and the price increase has increased. Compared with the start of the market at the end of April, both the ex-factory price and the wholesale price of the market have mostly increased by 100- 180 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is higher than that of 200 yuan. At present, the ex-factory quotations of 25% chlorine-based compound fertilizer are mostly 1280- 1380 yuan, 30% chlorine-based 1600- 1750 yuan, 40% chlorine-based 2220-2350 yuan and 45% chlorine-based 2450-2550 yuan. 40% sulfur 2400-2550 yuan, 45% sulfur 2680-2800 yuan, 48% sulfur 2900-3 100 yuan. According to the above data, the chemical fertilizer industry will develop well in the second half of the year.
3. Performance growth is in line with market expectations. In the quarter of 20 13, the company realized the main business income of 1 4,743,800 yuan, up by 10.73% year-on-year, and realized the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 82,490 yuan, up by 53.88% year-on-year, with earnings per share of 0.49 yuan. The company expects the growth rate of 13 in the second quarter to be 30%~50%.
With the increase of sales volume, the price difference widens. During the reporting period, the price of the company's products decreased with the price of raw materials, and the revenue growth mainly benefited from the increase in sales volume, which is expected to increase by15-20% year-on-year; It is estimated that the gross profit margin is 14.87%, up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, because the decline of products is less than that of raw material costs. 1 quarter, the prices of main basic fertilizer raw materials such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, potassium chloride and potassium sulfate required by the company all fell.
The project will be put into production in the second half of the year. At present, the company has about 2.5 million tons/year compound fertilizer production capacity. In the second half of 20 13, Suiping, Henan (500,000 tons) and Dangyang, Hubei (800,000 tons/year) will be put into production one after another; Henan Ningling Compound Fertilizer Project (800,000 tons/year) is expected to be put into production at the end of the year, and the production capacity is expected to reach 4.6 million tons by the end of 20 13. By the end of 14, the company will increase the compound fertilizer production capacity by 1 10,000 tons/year, with a total production capacity of 5.6 million tons/year. We believe that the company's geographical expansion continues to deepen and the distribution channels are all over the country. With the advantages of brand channels, we will ensure the digestion of new production capacity and continuously increase market share.
4. Since the listing of 20 1 1, the company has been in a wide range of shock consolidation. Last year1February began to rise, and then quickly fell back after hitting a new high on May 22, but the transaction volume remained stable, but the cost of holding funds was always at a high level. Therefore, from a technical point of view, the main force may flee, and it is not recommended to hold it in the short term, but the possibility of washing dishes is not ruled out, because from the perspective of company value and price-earnings ratio. So further observation is needed.
5. Investment suggestion: According to technical analysis, short-term investment should not be involved. At least, wait until the stock price shows obvious signs of stopping falling, and then make further observation and action. In terms of long-term value investment, the company's fundamentals are good and its development prospects are promising. You can intervene appropriately. At present, a small amount of positions can be opened, but it should not exceed 5% of the planned positions. Because the risk is too great, it is best to wait for the price to stabilize further before opening a position. You can also take the method of building while pouring. Although it is feasible to open positions here for a long time, it will obviously amplify risks and reduce returns.