QMLKHGRV524220523320110127: 28: 522005-Current economic situation in China. In recent years, at least in China media, it seems that 2 1 century is the century of China. This prediction, which excites the domestic people, is not entirely a hype to turn exports into domestic sales. For more than 20 years, China's economic reform has set off waves of China fever in the west, the most striking of which is the 14 article in Time magazine on May/0/993, with the overall title of "China: The Next World Power". The editor-in-chief of Weekly wrote enthusiastically that Emerson once called China a mummy and monument, but today, this historic site is showing the vitality that shakes the world. It can be said that in the last 10 year of the 20th century, the argument of China's rise swept the world. In front of this super tiger, many people who have firm faith in politics and free market are puzzled and speechless. Official economists are even more optimistic. The authoritative national situation analysis and research group of Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that China's economic aggregate will reach the first place in the world from 2020 to 2030; From 2040 to 2050, the per capita GDP will reach the current level of developed countries; By the end of 2 1 century, the per capita GDP and per capita social development level will reach the level of developed countries. The author of the report declared in a firm and heroic tone that 2 1 century will be the century of China's rise and take-off. Only a few researchers point out that China presents a false prosperity. In fact, one question is the essence: Can energy, resources and environmental capacity support a China century? The forecast of Chinese Academy of Sciences is that GDP will be 89 trillion in 2050, which is 50 times that of 1990. But the insurmountable obstacle is the lack of resources. Authoritative data confirmed that since the founding of New China 40 years ago, the gross national product has increased by more than 10 times, while the consumption of mineral resources has increased by more than 40 times. The economic model of high consumption and low output is unparalleled in the world. Assuming that GNP increases by 50 times, it must consume 200 times of resources. The predictions of Chinese Academy of Sciences scholars are all based on the national economic system with low resource consumption, which is of course not a fact, but like an order. To say the least, even if some miracle happens and a low-consumption economy is really established, can the resources of China and even the whole world support China's economic growth by 50 times? Perhaps the most profound tragedy is that after nearly half a century of experiments, China was horrified to find that its resources were almost exhausted, while the total size of the global economy was constantly expanding, leaving little resources in the world. According to the report 1998 The State of the World by World Watch, if the current development model is not changed, the global land and water resources will not meet China's demand for food, and the oil resources will be insufficient. The world can't go on at the current speed of development. Talking about the increasingly urgent environmental capacity and ultra-high-speed pollution in China. Scholars have confirmed that during the 30 years from the early 1950s to the mid-1980s, the total social output value increased by 15 times, and the pollutants discharged into the atmosphere increased by more than 100 times-that is, when the total social output value increased by 1 times, the amount of pollution would increase by 6-7 times. According to this ratio, China's economic aggregate will increase by 50 times, and pollution will increase by 300 times. Even if the pollution rate decreases with the economic development, GNP increases by 50 times, and the pollution amount only increases by 100 times, China is definitely not a country where human beings can live. In other words, miraculously boarding the high-tech train, the economic structure has changed, the pollution has increased by 10 times, and the earth environment is no longer suitable for human survival. Simply put, if it exceeds several major ecological indicators-the warning line of 20% forest coverage, the warning line of per capita freshwater resources 1000 m3, the warning line of per capita cultivated land area of 0.8 mu, and so on. The ecosystem can be regarded as breaking through the ecological environment capacity, being overloaded and tending to collapse-this is a nightmare that China is facing. In fact, China's urgent task is not to discuss how to catch up and realize the dream of becoming a powerful country, but how to save it. Official economists often boast two figures-the seventh in GDP and the first in GDP growth rate. Some comments are as follows: 1, which means that the country with the largest population, the third land area and the third mineral resources in the world ranks seventh in total output value, smaller than Italy and larger than Brazil; 2. After deducting the resource and environmental costs of ultra-high investment, it actually ranks behind the world; 3. The so-called comprehensive national strength index has nothing to do with people's well-being, but can only satisfy the rulers' hegemonic desire and the people's great power mentality; 4. The growth rate is not true statistically; 5. The high-speed growth of high input, high consumption, high pollution and low output is not worth the loss. Apart from maintaining employment in exchange for political stability, it is actually a chronic disease in China's economy. Internally, speed control has always been the goal of successive governments, and it became a boastful achievement when it was publicized. The desperate number is crucial: 1, and its proportion in the world economic aggregate is decreasing. 200 years ago, during the heyday of the Qing Empire (1800), China's products accounted for 33% of the global total, Europe accounted for 28%, and the United States only accounted for 0.8%; 100 years ago (1900 years ago), on the eve of the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, China's output accounted for 6.2% of the world; After the continuous destruction of World War II, Civil War and Korean War, 1955 GDP still accounts for 4.7% of the world total. 1997 The proportion of GDP in the world dropped to 3.5%-the socialism with the world's highest growth rate for half a century, and the proportion of GDP in the world fell instead of rising, far less than that in the declining late Qing Dynasty. The message conveyed by figures is that the gap with the developed countries and the world average has not narrowed, but has widened. The reason is that China's economic benefits are extremely poor. Compared with the world and different periods, the input-output benefits are not good, or even worse, whether in kind, capital or labor. 2. The per capita wealth ranks lower in the world: the per capita income ranks 8 1 in the world, accounting for only 65th in terms of purchasing power, less than Latvia and more than Jamaica. Compared with the United Nations Human Development Index, China fell to 107, ranking behind Albania. According to the World Bank study, among the 120 countries participating in the assessment, China ranks 96th in per capita GDP; The proportion of education expenditure and tertiary industry output value to GNP is 102 and 1 13 respectively. According to the new calculation method for measuring national wealth (including the monetization of natural resources in the total wealth) introduced by WB95, China's per capita wealth ranks only162nd in the world, which is113 of the world's per capita level. The first set of figures shows that China people are still poor in the world today; The latter set of figures shows that China people may be poorer in the future due to the scarcity of resources. Taken together, the above figures can be summarized in three sentences: 1 China is a poor country that lags behind the world, and it is a poor country with extremely scarce resources and serious lack of stamina; 2. After half a century of high-speed catch-up, the distance between China and the advanced countries in the world is getting farther and farther; If population, resources, science and technology, education and other factors are taken into account, China will never have a bright future. Some economists explained the optimism that pervaded the official media. A few economists have gained a special status by combining with power capital and foreign capital. They can share a large share in China's prosperity (whether it is real prosperity or false prosperity), but they don't have to share the cost when the crisis occurs. They are optimistic and paint a beautiful picture for the people-the growth rate determines everything, and economic development can automatically solve all social contradictions. Economist Heyek once said that one of his important lessons was that he ignored the time factor. He believes that the academic understanding of time is slow, far from knowing that the right time is everything like politicians, athletes and actors. Many of his economic works try to introduce the factor of time, but in general economic works, the key role of time is completely ignored. When did it happen? How long may there be between cause and effect? This is also a painful lesson for China people. We know that many things may happen, such as the arrival of the moment when human beings live in harmony with nature, but we ignore this moment-how long do we have? When dreams come true, what are we left with? Take the sunken ship as an example. How many boards do we have left when all passengers can vote and repair it immediately? The key to saving ecological collapse is also time-can we reverse the general trend of rapid depletion of resources and environmental capacity before the country runs out of carrying capacity? From the perspective of resource overload, the maximum limit of land carrying capacity is about1.5-1.600 million people, and no official or scholar has proposed a higher upper limit. According to the trend of population growth, there is still 15 years before the critical point of economic-ecological collapse. As far as limiting population growth is concerned, the government has adopted the most stringent policy in the world, and I am afraid there is nothing it can do in the future. From the point of view of pollution overload, the environmental protection officials sent by the United States in Beijing estimate that if huge investment is started from 1996, it will take 3 trillion dollars of emergency investment before 2004 to completely solve the environmental protection problem. This figure is equivalent to 7-8 times of the total fiscal revenue in the first 40 years after the establishment of the government. Investing 10 years will cost 300 billion dollars every year-it is obviously impossible to invest on this scale. If we consider the accelerated outflow of state-owned assets every year, things are even more desperate. This is also talking about time-it may be too late. We don't even need to discuss whether 2 1 century is the century of China, which is a luxury. We can minimize our expectations: Is there water to drink in China in 2 1 century? The per capita fresh water in China is only 1/4- 1/5 of the world average. All rivers and lakes are polluted, and groundwater is seriously over-exploited. It is an indisputable fact that more than half of cities are short of water, more than half of cities are seriously short of water, and almost all megacities are short of water. Fifty cities have entered a state of crisis, and the situation continues to deteriorate. With the national quality that China people can especially endure, the gradual and routine water shortage can be maintained all the time, and it does not necessarily lead to social disintegration. The acute outbreak in the gradual disaster will be the joint point of the collapse of social endurance. There is no need to wait until the distant future. In today's severe water crisis, as long as a drought lasts for several years, it may lead to social disintegration. Historically, the drought of 1638- 164 1 year lasted for three years, which occurred in the Central Plains, leading to the rise of bandits, social unrest, and the starvation of the people, which eventually overthrew the powerful Ming government. If a drought lasts for three years, its strike point is just in North China, where the tolerance is the lowest and the consequences are unimaginable. Beijing, Tianjin, Tang, Bao and other areas are extremely water-poor areas in China. Foreign tourists only see high-rise buildings, but they don't know that the per capita fresh water in this city group is less than 300 cubic meters, which is lower than the international per capita water warning line (1/3), which is the world's per capita 1/30, lower than the world-famous arid Arabian Peninsula and lower than Israel (370 cubic meters of per capita water resources)-centering on Beijing, There are no regular rivers within 800 kilometers (2 million square kilometers, more than the whole country 1/5) in Fiona Fang, the surface water is basically exhausted, and the groundwater is all seriously over-exploited, with the deepest wells reaching 300-400 meters. As early as 10 years ago, Wu Guochang, director of the Water Resources Department of the Ministry of Water Resources, issued a warning: If the water supply problem is not improved, as long as there is another drought, the economy in North China may collapse. At present, the Greater Beijing area has the necessary conditions to be destroyed by the water crisis. In order to get the capital out of danger, experts are nervously discussing various emergency plans, such as transferring water from the south, which is1000km away, or even moving the capital. Many ecologists are pessimistic: all emergency engineering measures cannot fundamentally solve the water crisis, and 2 1 century will be the century without water in China. Water is only one aspect of resource and environmental disasters, and 2 1 century will be the century of China's collapse. At the moment of disaster, a war to redistribute resources on a global scale may break out. Is there no way to fix it? Of course, for example, implement private ownership as soon as possible, so that every piece of land, every forest and every mine has its own owner; For example, implement a market economy as soon as possible and use the power of the market to limit the unrestrained squandering of resources (including environmental resources); For example, give up the arrogant strategy of catching up with others and take the road of limited growth from the national conditions such as too large population base, extremely poor per capita resources and extremely small environmental capacity. But the question remains: Is there still time? Maybe there is still a little time, maybe it is too late. It is difficult for any China government to reorganize society and rebuild its homeland on the basis of this creative destruction. To say the least, even if the system transformation is miraculously completed, the ecological disaster has its great inertia. For example, the ecology of Russia and the former socialist countries in eastern Europe deteriorated rapidly during the period of institutional alternation. In addition, the restoration of ecological balance will take a long time. What's more, we are only talking about water crisis, energy crisis and environmental capacity crisis. China has already fallen into a full-scale crisis: corruption, resource depletion, environmental deterioration, inflation, abnormal stock market, bubble economy, bankruptcy of state-owned enterprises, unemployment of workers, poverty of farmers, financial chaos and out-of-control public security; In the big system of society, any link is so fragile that it may suddenly break. The fracture of any link may trigger an avalanche of the whole large-scale system, which is unstoppable and hard to prevent-some people in China have a premonition that the situation is in jeopardy. The other side of the victory of the dream spirit in the 2 1 century is that the bureaucratic strongmen have already transferred their ill-gotten wealth abroad, and foreign passports are in hand, ready to run away at any time. People with limited knowledge put their hard-earned money into insolvent state-owned banks in case of disaster. The big ship is going to sink. Everyone wants to grab a bigger board, only those who suffer from nothing. Looking at today's China, short-sightedness is pervasive, and people eat, drink and be merry in time, which is the highest in the world today. This is the last feast before the end, and it is the instinct of disaster. Public ownership, especially the separation of ownership and use right since the reform and opening-up, is the institutional root of destroying China's resources and ecological environment. Public ownership makes the land of mountains and rivers lose its guardian and opens the door for destructive use. Under full public ownership, workers have no motivation to produce and generally have no motivation to destroy. The separation of the two rights represented by various contract systems not only deprives people of the ownership of mountains, rivers, forests and mines, but also injects internal drive into destructive utilization. Just like a public bicycle, it is destined to be the most damaged and fastest. The public-private partnership system established by Deng Xiaoping is unprecedented in history. Bicycles are still public, the difference is that users can legally take smuggled goods. In this way, you can imagine the destructive use! In the imperial era, Jiangshan was owned by the emperor and passed down from generation to generation. No one dares to destroy it. Every specific land and forest workshop is guarded by a personality owner. In the era of classical socialism, resources and property were completely public. Although it is difficult to avoid the tragedy of public property in economics, workers have no incentive to use it destructively. The worst thing is the public-private system, where mountains and rivers have no owners, which can kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and fish all resources! Under such institutional conditions, growth means destruction, and rapid growth means rapid destruction. Since the losses are huge, why should we pursue high-speed growth at all costs? Governments and economists are not slow. Although he is complacent about the rapid growth of public propaganda, he keeps asking for speed control in private. Officials have long understood that high-speed growth with high input, high consumption, high pollution and low efficiency is not a good thing, but an economic disaster. Therefore, they don't blindly pursue high speed, but only demand appropriate high speed-the higher the speed, the heavier the loss; If the speed is not high, the advantages will not be reflected, unemployment will surge and the political power will be unstable. It seems that the secret is that rapid growth is the only possibility of political stability. After a long period of socialist practice, economists have come up with a law. Only by maintaining a high growth rate of more than 6% can we solve the employment problem of the new labor force every year. Therefore, the rapid growth of more than 6% has proved the superiority of socialism and now it has become a guarantee of political stability. Speed is not only an economic issue, but also a sharp political issue. Only high speed can defeat capitalism; Only at a high speed can we strengthen the alliance of workers and peasants and consolidate the dictatorship of the proletariat on a new basis. However, the superiority theory seems to be widely questioned. The only thing the government can do is to fully promote economic prosperity and spend money to buy stability. In this situation, there seems to be a tacit understanding between the people and the regime: you can give up the right to inherit the eldest son, but always give a bowl of red bean porridge. The new practice has proved that only by maintaining a high growth rate of more than 8% (statistically) can we alleviate the employment pressure of the new labor force and maintain prosperity, and the growth rate of 8% has become the lifeline of persistence. Economists know the secret. John young hit the nail on the head and pointed out why it must reach 8%. Economists say it is to ensure employment and maintain confidence. The economic growth rate, which was originally a predicted figure in the world, is unchangeable and unquestionable in China. Because it is too different from reality, it has intensified to the point where everyone is talking about it. This also proves that the economic growth rate has become the main source of political stability. Cheng Xiaonong, an economist, said that the economic benefits are getting worse and worse, and the state also encourages enterprises and institutions to blindly increase wages and bonuses, expand welfare, and empty the accumulation of state finance and enterprises, with the aim of exchanging high income and welfare for public support. Are we paying too high a price to maintain the stability of a government? Who can tell me that I must pay the price? It is deeply distressing that the high cost of legitimacy is not RMB, US dollars and gold, but the basic living conditions of our nation.