According to the global cyclone monitoring data, what storms are there in the North Atlantic today? Paulette? (paulette) and Rene? (RENE) is increasing, with winds of 8 and 9. These two storms don't look too strong, but they may also affect some areas in the future. Especially tropical storms? Rene. The impact may be a little bigger, and it is already affecting the island area. This is the basic situation.
But to talk about the big picture, this? Double storm? It can only be said that most of the time is usually developed in the sea area, so it is a lucky thing. Let's get to know it here. These two storms are also unique in the world today? Double storm? There are changes in the later period. Let's take another look. Let's pay attention to the new typhoon embryo 96W in the northwest Pacific. Now 96W is located at 17438+0? N 162.3? E, the highest wind force 15 kt, the lowest central pressure 1006 hectopascals, so it was slightly enhanced, and the United States was also upgraded to a low-level label. Of course, from the satellite cloud picture, the condition of this offshore typhoon embryo is not very good, the cloud system is loose and the center is chaotic, so it is unlikely to develop in a short time, and then it will continue to move westward, with the temporary path unchanged.
Can this typhoon get up? According to the simulation of GFS, it is estimated that the 96W typhoon embryo will not get up, and it is expected that 12 or 13 will disappear in the northwest Pacific in September, but the European numerical center is not optimistic about this typhoon embryo. So this year's typhoon 1 1? Xia Hong? It may not be this typhoon embryo, but it depends on whether it will change in the later stage. It is already very typical in itself. Autumn typhoon? In season, ocean typhoons are prone to break out into super typhoons, but this 96W typhoon embryo seems to be weakened under the influence of subtropical high, and it is unlikely to become similar to previous years. Mangosteen? In this case, the probability should be extremely low. Of course, in general, there are still many low-pressure areas in the northwest Pacific and many tropical disturbances are developing.
So this also means that the northwest Pacific is still a typhoon today? Active period? At the same time, we can see that a low pressure point appeared off the coast of Japan on September 14, but from the analysis, it seems to be an extratropical cyclone instead of a developing typhoon embryo. At the same time, it was strengthened to 993hpa in September 15, so it was strengthened, but it is still far from Japan, not near, so friends in Japan don't have to worry. It doesn't seem to be a typhoon, but an extratropical cyclone. At the same time, we can see that many extratropical cyclones may develop later, which is the general situation. Generally speaking, in the medium term, most of them are developed from temperate cyclones, and most of them are developed from inland areas of China.
This also shows that this year's typhoon 1 1? Xia Hong? It may be delayed for a while. China also predicted that there will be 1 1-2 typhoons in the northwest Pacific in the next 20 days. It is also considered that it is unlikely that a new typhoon will appear in a short time. This is the general situation in the northwest Pacific today. There was only one typhoon Poseidon 10 in September, but this typical one? Autumn typhoon? Peak value 17, and it will become the wind king in the northwest Pacific since 2020. If there is an autumn typhoon in the later period, it will also focus on it. Autumn typhoon can easily develop into a super typhoon, and its harm or influence is no less than other typhoons. This is the general situation. What is the typhoon trend in September? Will there be many typhoons? On the whole, there are not many typhoons this year, and according to the existing situation, there will not be too many in September.
According to the new data released by China, the typhoon season in September is not over. It is estimated that there may be 6-7 typhoons in this sea area throughout September, which is more than the same period (5) in normal years. Among them, 2-3 typhoons landed or affected China's coastal areas, slightly more than normal (1.8). However, considering the actual situation, September seems to reach the expected minimum number of typhoons. So it is impossible to achieve a high probability. Generally, there are five typhoons in the same period of the year, and now there is 1, and the possibility of the other four is relatively low. At least from the simulation of GFS and EC, it is unlikely that there will be a new typhoon in mid-September, so don't worry, the deviation is still a little big now. Moreover, 96W is unlikely to become the No.1 typhoon 1 1 this year, so the autumn typhoon needs to be worried, but it is unlikely to appear so soon.
On the other hand, whenever a typhoon is mentioned now, friends in the northeast may be very worried. No.8 typhoon Bawei, No.9 typhoon Mesak and No.1 typhoon Poseidon have successively affected Northeast China, with great impacts, and many crops may be destroyed. And this is the third consecutive typhoon combo, and it is the first time in history.
It is conceivable that 2020 is really different, and friends in Northeast China should pay more attention to typhoons later. In the past, there were few typhoons. In 2020, there were three typhoons in a row, and these three typhoons were bigger than one. This is enough to prove that today's climate may really change.