A major feature of China's history is "changing dynasties". When a dynasty can't solve social contradictions, the people will always rise up, bury the old dynasty and open up a new dynasty. After the new dynasty was short-lived, it fell into decline and gave birth to new social contradictions. Therefore, "one rule and one chaos". So far, the history of "chaos control cycle" has lasted for more than 2000 years. Will it continue? Some people have analyzed the deep-seated reasons of China's chaos control cycle from the perspectives of resources and population. During the two thousand years from the Han Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty, the population ceiling of China was basically stable at 50-60 million. Judging from the population curve, whenever the population reaches its peak, it will usher in a historical evolution, social unrest and regime change. Wang Mang usurped the throne in the Western Han Dynasty, the Yellow Scarf Uprising in the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Peasant Uprising in the Late Sui Dynasty, the Anshi Rebellion in the Tang Dynasty, the Jingkang Rebellion in the Northern Song Dynasty, and the Li Zicheng Uprising in the Late Ming Dynasty all happened under this background. Due to the alternation of war and peace, the population changes in China are characterized by ups and downs. This is a dynamic process: in the early dynasty, because of the decrease of war-torn population, land resources were relatively rich, thus redistributing land and realizing "land to the tiller"; With the increase of population, the distribution of land resources is exhausted and the utilization of resources is saturated. In the words of economics, it is called Pareto optimality, and the dynasty entered its peak. In the late dynasty, land resources became less and less, and a large number of surplus population went to other places to make a living, forming a "refugee". The huge refugee population eventually led to a profound social crisis, and "officials forced the people to rebel" naturally appeared. Bureaucracy contributed to the formation of refugees. In a power-led society, power is the basis of social resource allocation. In the early days of the dynasty, because of the fear of peasant rebellion and the solid foundation of the empire, bureaucratic groups often distributed land fairly and exploited farmers lightly. With the increase of population and the increasing shortage of land resources, bureaucratic groups and local gentry conspired to annex land and became vested interest groups. Vested interest groups also use their power to exempt themselves from the tax they should bear, and the tax burden of small and medium-sized yeomen groups has increased sharply and is going bankrupt day by day. From this point of view, the "chaotic control cycle" in ancient China was caused by two reasons. On the one hand, China's traditional agricultural economy is single, lacking commercial and market mechanisms and unable to accommodate the surplus labor generated by the agricultural sector; On the other hand, under the centralized system, power can not be effectively supervised and restricted, which leads to direct collusion between power and interests, forming vested interest groups and further infringing on the bottom groups of society. Will China continue the history of "chaos control cycle" from now on? Some people feel optimistic: China has established a market economy and a republic, breaking the condition of "chaotic control cycle". Unfortunately, in China's market economy, bureaucratic capital combined with power and capital is dominant, which is no different from the combination of power and land resources in feudal times. Although China's political system is called a republic, it does not have any elements of modern political civilization such as separation of powers, party politics, freedom of speech and universal suffrage. It can be said that the operating mechanism of political power in China is closer to ancient times than modern times. At present, the population of China has exceeded 654.38+300 million, basically reaching the limit of resources. Whether China can get out of the "chaotic control cycle" in the future is still unknown. On the other hand, China has a fairly clear plan on how to jump out of the "chaos control cycle". Developing industry and commerce is a feasible plan to jump out of the cycle of "controlling chaos". On the one hand, industry and commerce can absorb a large number of surplus agricultural population and solve the problem of overpopulation in rural areas. The population of the Southern Song Dynasty was nearly 70 million. Later, due to the invasion of Jin, the land area was further reduced. Due to the policy of encouraging industry and commerce and trade adopted by the court in the Southern Song Dynasty, the Southern Song Dynasty absorbed a large number of new people, so that there was no social crisis and turmoil in the Southern Song Dynasty. In the middle of Qing Dynasty, the population was able to exceed 1 100 million, which was attributed to the improvement of planting techniques and the promotion of high-yield crops, and the development of foreign trade was also an important reason. The development of industry and commerce can also cultivate a strong middle class. Academic circles generally believe that the ideal social structure is "olive-shaped", that is, the middle class is the main group of society, and the rich and the poor are the minority of society. "Olive-type" society has the characteristics of stability, rationality, constructiveness and pragmatism, which can promote the formulation of national political and economic policies in line with the interests of most people. It is worth noting that the development of industry and commerce is not the development of bureaucratic capital. The combination of power and capital has always been a freak of industrial and commercial development and a cancer that must be removed. Only by getting rid of bureaucratic capital and making private enterprises the main body of industrial and commercial development can we save wealth for the people and let the whole people enjoy the benefits of industrial and commercial development. Democracy is the fundamental condition for jumping out of the cycle of chaotic control. We have found a new way, and we can jump out of this cycle rate. This new road is democracy. " -This is the truth that Mao Zedong once realized, but knowing and doing are two different things. Some people argue the legitimacy of their own rule, claiming that people and history chose them to rule. This argument does have a reasonable part. It abandoned the "divine right of monarchical power" and admitted that "monarchical power is accepted by the people". However, there is no so-called authorization and eternal law in the world. Instead, every few years, the people will assess you to see if you are corrupt and degenerate, and then hold a referendum to decide whether to continue to authorize you to rule. This is the democratic system. Who is qualified to rule this country? This is an inappropriate question. If you ask questions like this, someone will jump out and flaunt their qualifications, such as historical choice, whose interests they represent, and say something shameless. In the end, collusion and tyranny between power and interests are always inevitable. It doesn't really matter who is the ruler. What is important is how to prevent the rulers from doing evil and how to peacefully remove the rulers when the people are dissatisfied. This is precisely the strength of a democratic system with decentralized checks and balances. Democracy means that the sovereignty of a country is granted by the people, not once and for all, but once every three to five years. Otherwise, "historical choice" will always flow under the democratic system in another form of "divine right of monarchy", and power will be effectively restricted, thus cutting off the marriage between power and interests, thus providing a guarantee for realizing the interests of the whole people. Industry and commerce and democracy complement each other. The market economy of industry and commerce established the principle of equal exchange, and gave birth to human rights concepts such as equality and freedom. Modern democracy is based on the concepts of freedom and equality. The democratic system guarantees the peaceful and orderly regime change, prevents social unrest and protects the rights of all social strata. Whether China can jump out of the "chaos control" cycle depends on whether the market economy in China can develop healthily, whether the collusion between power and capital can be cut off, and whether a democratic system characterized by separation of powers and universal suffrage can be established in China.