After all, the market is still our best teacher. Only ta let us know that "there was a big bull stock in front of me, and I didn't cherish it. If you miss it, you will regret it. The most painful thing in the world is this. "
The focus of this article is:
1. Ophthalmology market is a sunrise industry with high growth prospects.
2. Seven comparative analyses between three listed companies and Aier Ophthalmology.
3. Who will be the next Aier Ophthalmology?
Berry's research statement: This article is based on open market information, and the views are only for exchange and discussion. The full text is 7 100 words, and we will also release "Looking for the Devil in the Details: Digging Deep into the Performance of Three Ophthalmology Subsidiaries" in the near future. Welcome to follow up.
First of all, let's take a look at the overall market size of ophthalmic medical services and the growth data of ophthalmic hospitals.
In 20 18, the market size of ophthalmic medical services in China is estimated to be about 8765438+200 million yuan, and the compound annual growth rate of 20 14-20 18 keeps a high speed of more than 20%. Among them, the market scale of private eye hospitals in 20 18 is about 3.410.6 billion yuan, with an average compound annual growth rate of 210.3% respectively.
According to the statistics of National Health and Wellness Committee, there were 76 eye hospitals in China in 20 18, including 709 private eye hospitals and 52 public eye hospitals. 20 14-20 18, the compound annual growth rate of private hospitals is nearly 20%, while the number of public hospitals has decreased, with a decrease of nearly 2% in the same period.
It can be seen that the growth rate of the ophthalmic medical industry is considerable, especially the private ophthalmic hospitals have greater potential.
Secondly, from the sub-specialty of ophthalmology medical service, the market scale of cataract, refractive surgery and medical optometry ranks in the top three, accounting for about 57.4% of the whole ophthalmology medical service market. We can further explore its potential scope from these three services.
1, cataract sub-specialty market
With China gradually entering an aging society, the number of cataract patients is increasing year by year. Although the number of cataract operations in China has been greatly improved, there is still a big gap compared with developed countries. In 20 18, the number of cases of cataract surgery (CSR) per million people in China was 2600, which was significantly lower than that in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, and even less than half of that in India. There is still a gap from the threshold of 3,000 corporate social responsibility set by the World Health Organization (WHO) to eliminate cataract blindness.
In terms of market size, it is estimated that the market size of cataract surgery in China is 201759 million yuan, and the compound annual growth rate of 20 14-20 18 is about 20%, and the market development has maintained a high growth rate.
2, ametropia and medical optometry market segmentation.
Refractive errors include myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism. According to the statistics of the National Health and Wellness Committee, in 20 18 years, the total number of myopia patients in China reached about 480 million, and the overall myopia rate was close to 33.7%, far exceeding the global myopia incidence rate 12.5%. At present, the main treatment methods of ametropia are refractive surgery and optical refraction correction. In terms of market scale, it is estimated that the refractive surgery market in China will be 20139.10 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 310/8, and the market will continue to grow at a high speed.
In addition to refractive surgery, ametropia patients will also choose refractive correction. With the continuous improvement of patients' requirements for optometry quality, the medical optometry market has developed rapidly. The market size of China medical optometry is estimated to be 20 1846 million yuan, and the compound annual growth rate from 20 14 to 2018 is about 27. 1%.
3. The supply of ophthalmologists is insufficient.
To sum up, the demand for ophthalmology in China is strong, but the supply of doctors to ensure the quality of medical services is still insufficient, and the future market growth is still full of imagination. At the same time, on this high-speed growth track, competitive ophthalmic medical institutions will be expected to stand out and continuously expand the market.
Industry is a sunrise industry. Yes, here comes the problem. Who can win in the end?
Through peer analysis and comparison, the author hopes to help you judge the fundamentals of the three listed companies. On the other hand, I also try to catch a glimpse of the gap between these three companies and Aier Ophthalmology, and try to find the next 50 times "Aier Ophthalmology" in 10.
In addition, unless otherwise specified, the cut-off date of Huaxia Ophthalmology, Ophthalmology and Ophthalmology is 20 19 12 3 1. The data deadline of Aier Ophthalmology (2009) is 65438+February 3, 20091,and that of Aier Ophthalmology (20 19) is 2019 65438+February 3 1.
1. Corporate mission: Huaxia Ophthalmology is most like Aier Ophthalmology.
From the time of its establishment, it was clear at a glance that the eldest brother, the second brother, the third brother and the fourth brother began to wander in the ophthalmic rivers and lakes. Aier Ophthalmology is the earliest private hospital group. Huaxia Ophthalmology is the earliest listed among the three companies. However, no matter where the hero comes from, you can't rely on the old to sell the old. Whether the boss can always maintain his position in the Jianghu depends on whether the latecomers are diligent and lucky enough.
As the saying goes, corporate mission is the soul of a company, and it is the comprehensive embodiment of corporate culture, strategic pattern and service quality. In terms of corporate mission, Huaxia Ophthalmology and Aier Ophthalmology are particularly similar in corporate mission, which is also the most realistic and touching. The author speculates that perhaps the founders of the two companies have had similar experiences or strategic models. The corporate mission of Puri Ophthalmology feels a bit empty. The corporate mission of He Ophthalmology seems to be more in line with the local northeast old iron culture and easy for iron people to recognize. However, if Puri Ophthalmology and Ho Ophthalmology want to expand their business more effectively in other cities across the country in the future, I am afraid that the mission of this enterprise needs to be further refined in order to gain more recognition.
2. Business scale: Huaxia Ophthalmology is leading.
Judging from the geographical distribution, the number of hospitals and the number of holding subsidiaries, there is no doubt that Huaxia Ophthalmology is the largest of the three, even greater than Aier Ophthalmology in 2009.
Note: The data of Aier Ophthalmology is as of June 30th, 2009.
Looking further at the regional distribution of hospitals in various companies, we can see that the base of Huaxia Ophthalmology is in Fujian, and the number of hospitals is also the largest in Fujian, and the coverage of other major provinces in China is also the largest among the three.
Huaxia Ophthalmology surpassed Ho Ophthalmology and Ophthalmology in the number of outpatient visits and operations, and was higher than Aier Ophthalmology in 2009, but far less than Aier Ophthalmology 20 19. The author believes that after years of rapid development, Aier Ophthalmology has basically consolidated its leading position in the national chain, so it is natural that the number of outpatients and operations is higher than that of the three stores, while Huaxia Ophthalmology has performed well in its own field for many years and has a good market share.
3. Scientific research ability: Huaxia Ophthalmology performed well.
Huaxia Ophthalmology applied for and carried out 7 national and 9 provincial scientific research projects during the prospectus reporting period. Participated in and carried out 9 clinical trial projects, among which the national multi-center project 1 project was the total PI; Published scientific research papers 139 in various journals, including 28 papers included in SCI. The company has established cooperative relations with universities such as Xiamen University and Peking University, and cooperated in personnel training, academic construction and clinical research.
Rip Ophthalmology has established Sichuan Institute, Lanzhou Institute and Jinan Institute in cooperation with the health departments where several chain hospitals are located.
As a national drug clinical trial institution, He Ophthalmology presided over or participated in a number of clinical trials of new ophthalmic drugs, equipment and consumables.
Aier Ophthalmology has published 303 papers in various journals, including 7 papers of SCI/Medline1,38 papers of Chinese core journals of China scientific papers/statistical source journals1,and 94 papers of other categories. 95 vertical scientific research projects were approved, including 6 national projects, 36 provincial and ministerial projects and 53 municipal projects. Won 4 horizontal scientific research projects. Since 20 15, Aier Ophthalmology has successively established seven research institutes, including Aier Ophthalmology Research Institute, Aier Ophthalmology Research Institute, Keratopathy Research Institute, Cataract Research Institute, Glaucoma Research Institute, Retina Research Institute and Refraction Research Institute, aiming at promoting the research and innovation of cutting-edge and clinical application technologies in ophthalmology, visual science and various sub-disciplines.
Judging from the proportion of R&D expenses to operating income, Huaxia Ophthalmology has the highest proportion among the three companies, but it is not as good as Aier Ophthalmology.
Horizontal comparison, Huaxia Ophthalmology is the strongest of the three, but there is still a certain gap compared with the current Aier Ophthalmology.
4. Official word-of-mouth ranking: Only Huaxia Ophthalmology was nominated.
According to the authoritative China Hospital Ranking (20 18) compiled by Fudan University, only Xiamen Eye Center, a subsidiary of Huaxia Ophthalmology, was shortlisted, and the top ten in the list were all public eye hospitals, but no other private hospitals were seen. It can be seen that Xiamen Eye Center under Huaxia Ophthalmology still has a high influence and good reputation in the field of ophthalmology, and its official endorsement adds points to its strength.
5. The performance of subsidiaries and grassroots research.
Specifically, from the perspective of urban coverage, Huaxia Ophthalmology is the largest of the three companies, but the profitability of most cities is not ideal, mainly relying on Xiamen Ophthalmology Center, which makes the most money, to contribute net profit.
The number of cities in Puri Ophthalmology is the same as that in He Ophthalmology, but the proportion of profitable cities in Puri Ophthalmology is higher than that in He Ophthalmology. At the same time, Rip Ophthalmology and Ho Ophthalmology also rely on their most important subsidiaries, Rip and Shenyang Ho Ophthalmology Hospital, respectively, to enhance the profitability of the Group.
In 2009, the number of cities covered by Aier Ophthalmology was relatively less than three, but the proportion of profitable cities was higher than three. At the same time, Aier Ophthalmology is less dependent on the performance of a single subsidiary than the three companies.
6. Financial performance of each company
First, the author shows you a panorama, and then analyzes the key financial indicators one by one.
Huaxia Ophthalmology is undoubtedly the oldest of the three, with the highest operating income, net profit attributable to the parent company, total assets and owner's equity attributable to the parent company, but there is still a big gap with the current Aier Ophthalmology scale.
Looking closely at the operating income, Huaxia Ophthalmology has the highest average charge per outpatient service, even higher than Aier Ophthalmology.
From the classification of operating income, the cataract and refraction business of each company is definitely the main source of contributing income, which also confirms that the cataract and refraction business mentioned in our previous industry analysis is the most important sub-professional market and the most profitable market segment in the ophthalmic service market.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margins of cataract business and refraction business of the three companies are relatively high, but the gross profit margins of cataract business and refraction business of Huaxia Ophthalmology are not as good as those of Ophthalmology and He Ophthalmology. The gross profit margin of Huaxia ophthalmic cataract business and refractive business is low, mainly because some newly-built and acquired hospitals are located in economically underdeveloped areas, and the pricing standards are low. At the same time, the proportion of personalized high-end services is gradually increasing, but the cost of surgical consumables and drugs used in the above services is also high, which leads to the increase of the average charge price of the company being lower than the average cost.
Why is the gross profit margin of Huaxia Ophthalmology the lowest among the three? In addition to the price factor, I guess it may be related to the depreciation of the company's fixed assets and the amortization of long-term deferred expenses. The greater the depreciation and amortization of a company, the higher the amount allocated to the main business cost, and the lower the gross profit naturally.
It is not difficult to see from the above table that the ratio of fixed assets and long-term deferred expenses of Huaxia Ophthalmology to total assets is indeed the highest among the three, even exceeding Aier Ophthalmology. The higher the fixed assets and long-term deferred expenses, the greater the corresponding depreciation and amortization, which may be one of the main reasons why Huaxia Ophthalmology's gross profit margin is lower than other companies. In my opinion, referring to the operation mode of Aier Ophthalmology, there will be a lot of room for a series of operations after the listing of Huaxia Ophthalmology, so as to make statements of fixed assets and long-term deferred expenses, reduce depreciation and amortization in the statements, and thus improve the gross profit margin.
From the perspective of capital structure, companies are not short of money, and the net interest-bearing debt ratio is very low, which indirectly reflects that eye hospitals have abundant cash flow and do not need to rely too much on bank loans. In contrast, Aier Ophthalmology gradually increased its financial leverage during its expansion, so its net interest-bearing debt ratio was higher than that of the three companies.
7. Financing projects of companies
Let's take a look at the financing direction of the three companies first.
Huaxia ophthalmology
Ruipu ophthalmology
Heshi ophthalmology
The fundraising projects of the three companies are basically to expand new markets and upgrade existing hospitals. Huaxia Ophthalmology plans to invest about 200 million yuan to upgrade the information management system, which is the largest investment among the three companies. The author believes that if the efficiency of the upgraded information management system is improved, it will undoubtedly help the company's gross profit margin.
If there is an opportunity to return to the time machine and let us find the investment opportunity of "Aier Ophthalmology" in that year, then the author believes that among the three ophthalmic hospitals to be listed this time, Huaxia Ophthalmology has the highest similarity with Aier Ophthalmology in 2009.
The scale of Huaxia Ophthalmology is the largest of the three, and it has good comprehensive competitive strength and market influence in the open cities, and its performance growth is not bad. If the listing is successful, Huaxia Ophthalmology is expected to compete with Aier Ophthalmology in more cities across the country with capital, and grab more doctor resources and market share. It is not impossible to conservatively estimate the dream of doubling or doubling the net profit within five years.
Of course, we also need to see that there is still a big gap between Huaxia Ophthalmology and the current Aier Ophthalmology. For example, most subsidiaries have weak profitability, low gross profit margin of core business and high proportion of fixed assets.
Analyst: Stephen Lee