New highs are the key words in the recent A-share market. At present, many fund investors should be profitable. Then the problem is coming. A shares have risen so much. Should the fund in our novice hands be redeemed through profit taking? Today, Bian Xiao will share with you the A-share high point, whether it is profitable or not, for your reference only!
A-share market performance
A shares stood at 3500 points. Is it a bull market now? How big is the growth space?
In fact, in the bull market from 2005 to 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index both rose by more than 500%. During the recent bull market from 13 to 15, the blue-chip Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by more than 150% respectively, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index performed well, soaring by nearly 600%.
1, change in trading volume
The rise and fall of the stock market is also driven by funds, and the stock market will inevitably need a lot of funds to push up the index. Judging from the historical market, when the average daily turnover exceeds one trillion, it is often accompanied by the accelerated rise of the stock market.
Therefore, the trading volume of the market will gradually increase. The higher the index, the greater the trading volume, thus supporting the stock market to rise, and the market trading volume is obviously enlarged, even exceeding the historical bull market.
Whether the turnover can stop falling and rebound is an important feature before the bull market comes. The so-called "the amount of land depends on the land price" is not accurate. The amount of land is only a process that must be experienced before the volume adjustment is in place. Even if the volume appears, the stock index may not be adjusted in place. How was the bull market formed at this time? If the stock index continues to fall, the trading volume will slowly and moderately enlarge after touching the land volume, and there is an obvious deviation trend from the bottom of the stock index, then the trading volume can be adjusted in place. Sometimes, the more low-volume broken position trend appears, the more it means that the short-term market is about to change, that is, the stock index is about to complete its last decline.
2. Market sentiment
"The market is born in despair, rises in hesitation and ends in madness".
The market surge will often attract more retail investors to enter the market, and the preferred investment targets of individual investors are always some hot sectors with higher previous gains, thus accelerating the peak of the index. Therefore, the number of new accounts has always been an important indicator to observe market sentiment, but the data is updated late and is not suitable for measuring short-term market sentiment.
Different from retail investors, the purchase of funds by various institutions deserves attention. Among them, Public Offering of Fund announced the purchase of partial stock funds one after another, and the explosion of new funds also emerged one after another. It is not difficult to see the confidence and determination of institutional investors in the long-term development of the future A-share market.
3. Trend pattern
When the bull market comes, the market trend has obvious characteristics: the stock index will have the technical form of accelerating decline, and all kinds of technical bottom, market bottom, policy bottom, support level and barrier are very fragile and easy to be broken; All kinds of moving average systems are also in the form of downward divergence, and they are steeper and steeper; When the market falls near the last few days, there will even be several consecutive long yinxian plunges. With the downward gap, it feels that a strong short-selling force has broken the psychological point of investors, leading to panic and flight, and then the market will stabilize.
When the bull market shows a unilateral upward trend, the Shanghai Composite Index forms a band-type upward trend, and the index rises more and falls less, with no highest point but a higher point, and the index high point is constantly refreshed.
4. Performance of polar plate
If the stock market wants to go cattle, it must be inseparable from the pull-up of financial stocks and cyclical stocks.
Financial stocks include banks, insurance companies and brokers. Cyclic stocks include real estate, coal, nonferrous metals, steel, cement, building materials and electricity. When these plates rotate to drive the index, this is the most typical bull market feature.
In short, the stock market does have many characteristics when it is in a bull market. In addition to the above characteristics, the stock market has many obvious characteristics, such as investors turning losses into profits, more discussions about the stock market, more reports about the stock market, and more people who don't want to speculate in the stock market.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index recently broke through the high point of 3,500 points, the current market sentiment is not as hot as that in July last year, and the gap is even greater than the bull market highs of 2007 and 20 15. However, investors should also pay attention to the callback risk that may be faced after continuous rise.
Fund net worth performance
With the recovery of the market, the net value of funds has also rebounded, and many funds have hit record highs. However, in fund investment, some people earn more, some people earn less, and some even lose money. A big reason lies in your fund position and fund operation.
As Warren Buffett said: If you want to invest successfully in this life, you don't need top IQ, extraordinary business acumen or secret information. You just need a sound thinking frame as the basis of decision-making. You have the ability to control emotions, and emotions will not erode this thinking frame.
Therefore, for those friends who are entangled in redemption, it is recommended to consider it through specific circumstances.
1, index valuation
This is mainly for index funds. If the current index is highly valued and the historical quantile of the valuation is relatively high, it indicates that there may be a big bubble in the index's constituent stocks, and it is possible to consider selling them.
The PE value is usually higher in bull market and lower in bear market, especially in several important bull markets in 2007, 2009 and the first half of 20 15. When the valuation of the index exceeds a certain standard, the "aggressive" bull market is likely to have ended and the stock market may be about to reverse.
For active funds, it can also be judged according to the valuation of the investment industry index. If the short-term increase of the industry is too high and overvalued, we should pay attention to the risks and choose to take profits in batches.
Of course, the valuation indicators applicable to different industries may be inconsistent, and the profit-taking lines applicable to different index funds are also different. The specific choice depends on the individual's risk preference.
2. Fund performance
Although the index rose, not all funds rose.
There are more than 10,000 funds in the market, and various styles and types emerge one after another, and the combination is even more varied. There are ups and downs every day. It is very challenging to combine fund selection and fund allocation.
If a suitable combination is established and the position is satisfactory, you can postpone the take profit appropriately. If the position is heavy, or if you feel that the portfolio can't adapt to the later market, you also need to consider taking profit.
For funds that have not grasped the hot spots in the market, it is suggested to consider whether to adjust their positions. The fund may still be a good fund, but the overall structure needs regular review, optimization and adjustment. For example, if the market style is growing, the allocation of growth funds in the portfolio can be appropriately increased.
It is suggested to set up a retreat profit-taking point. It is said that the bull market is not top-notch, and you can't judge where the market can go up in a crazy state, so you can set a retreat for yourself, so that you can lock in the yield and avoid missing the gains from the market rise.
3. Personal situation
Finally, investment is a personal matter in the final analysis, and whether to redeem it depends on the actual situation of the individual, so we may wish to analyze it in combination with our own situation.
If you are a holder who intends to make short-term investments, and you have invested a lot now, you feel that the fund has achieved the goal of taking profits, and you are still worried about the current situation, fearing that it will rise rapidly in the short term and then you can take profits appropriately.
If you are a long-term investment holder and don't hold too many positions at present, it is recommended not to worry too much at this time.
If you are worried that there will be a correction in the market in the future, it is suggested that you can reduce the risk by adding positions in batches or making fixed investment.
For ordinary investors, frequent purchase and redemption can not bring better returns. Even when the market trend is upward, you can make money every time you apply for redemption, but it is also a damage to your net worth. A better method should be to choose fund managers with excellent long-term performance and unchanged style, insist on fixed investment in bear market or shock market, and sell them when the market is hot.
Finally, investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance comprehensively and make a choice after rational analysis, whether to redeem or continue to hold.
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