What about inevitability and contingency? What are they? Inevitability means that it will happen. There are many uncertainties in the chance that happens by chance. From the perspective of historical materialism, inevitability is the essence and contingency is the phenomenon.
Therefore, now my topic can also be understood as the essence and phenomenon of history, so we will go deep behind history to understand its essence and phenomenon.
In the autumn of 209 BC, a group of travel-stained people came to osawa Township. They were sent to Yuyang to station troops, but unexpectedly, they were caught in a rainstorm once in decades, which lasted for several days and nights. Finally, the rain stopped and the flood made them unable to move. When they finally hit the road again, half a month had passed. According to the criminal law of the Qin Dynasty, the guards who are late will be beheaded!
Just when they were all at a loss, the two young men stood up and said to everyone, "Since we are late now, going to Yuyang is also a death. It is better to rebel here, and there may be hope of living. How about waiting for the king? " Everyone actively responded to their call, and the first peasant uprising in the history of China began. These two men, one is Bobby Chen and the other is Guangwu.
Ok, now let's go back to reality and analyze the contingency and inevitability of this situation. First of all, let's look at the phenomenon: Chen Sheng and Guangwu rebelled because of the late arrival of the rainstorm, and both died anyway. But let's go deeper: why defend the border? Because the Qin dynasty needed manpower, why did it die anyway? Because the garrison will be killed if it is late, why should it be killed if it is late? Because of the strictness of Qin law.
Under our series of questions, the essence surfaced: because of Qin's tyranny, they rebelled, and some people may think there is something wrong. They said, "Not necessarily. If it hadn't rained heavily and delayed the trip, they wouldn't be late and naturally wouldn't rebel. " But the problem is coming again. Assuming that Chen Guang didn't get angry because of the delay of heavy rain, how can you be sure that Guang Guang won't come out to rebel? This is the difference between inevitability and contingency.
With contingency (phenomenon), we can explain why some things happen, and with inevitability (essence), we can truly understand the relationship behind this series of historical phenomena. Without the tyranny of the Qin Dynasty, the people were forced to revolt, and there would be no uprising in osawa Township, no matter how much Chen Sheng and Guangwu delayed. On the contrary, due to Qin's tyranny, even if Chen Sheng and Li Guang did not revolt because of heavy rain, they would revolt because of mudslides. Essence is always the root of the phenomenon.
Not only Guangwu Uprising and Chen Sheng Uprising, but almost all historical events have their reasons. Why history is the most relevant subject is because even two trivial and seemingly unrelated things may have inseparable relations and hidden waves behind them.
This is the beauty of history.