Looking back on the coming 20 15 years, "go up, go up, go up" has become the normal word in Shenzhen property market. The transaction volume is rising, the house price is "jumping up", and the de-melting cycle is only 6 months ... We should calm down and carefully sort out and review the situation of the entire Shenzhen property market. The market structure is constantly evolving, and the top ten keywords of 20 15 may give a glimpse of the whole picture of Shenzhen property market this year.
1 Days with frequent sunshine
Shenzhen property market continued to be hot in the first half of the year, which made it stand out from the relatively dull market situation in the country. Hot words such as "sunshine" and "sold out" are frequent, and the property market continues to ferment. "3? After the "30 New Deal", developers are very enthusiastic about pushing the plate. According to the data of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, there were 24 projects opened or pushed in April, especially in the last week of April, 1 1 projects were concentrated in the market, which made the atmosphere of new housing market warm up rapidly. The sales rate of half of the projects is above 90%, and the number of projects opened as "daylight" reaches 6. After April, the property market in Shenzhen has been booming, with phenomena such as "sold out in three hours", "thousands of people grabbing houses" and "queuing to buy houses all night" happening from time to time. The sales rate of real estate without "daylight" is generally above 80%.
After the madness in the first half of the year, the property market began to slowly return to rationality in the second half of the year. Although there are not as many "daily sales" as in the first half of the year, there are also "daylight" phenomena from time to time for some properties with reasonable pricing and good overall situation of the project. According to industry insiders, there is little new construction land in Shenzhen, and the overall market is in short supply. The de-chemical cycle has been hovering around 6 months. Coupled with favorable policies, it is reasonable for Shenzhen to have "Japanese CDs" many times.
Two children, a total of two children.
With the liberalization of "comprehensive two children", opinions on its impact on the real estate market are overwhelming: four rooms are just needed, five rooms are improved, and large-sized apartments are coming soon.
However, the liberalization of the "comprehensive two-child" policy has not brought immediate results to the property market. Because buying another room in Shenzhen means at least increasing the cost by millions. According to the statistics of Shenzhen Chain Home Market Research Center, the average price of two bedrooms (70 square meters on average) in Shenzhen is 2.7 million, and the average price of three bedrooms (100 square meters on average) is 4 million. If Shenzhen has a second child, the cost of buying a house will increase by as much as 654.38+0.3 million because of the increase in family population.
Zhang, director of South China and West China Research Department in dtz, believes that it is a gradual liberalization process from the policy of "two children alone" on 20 13 to the "comprehensive second child" today. "From the demand side, this is a good thing, but the' comprehensive second child' will not have an immediate effect on the property market, because it is also affected by factors such as housing prices and the affordability of buyers."
3? 30 3? 30 New Deal
On March 30th, the five ministries and commissions made three major moves to save the property market: the down payment for the second home was reduced to 40%, and the minimum down payment ratio for provident fund loans was reduced to 20%. The signal that the business tax was changed from five to two immediately ignited the property market. The news that house prices rose overnight, the transaction volume soared and the price was reversed was endless.
The data shows that in some hot spots, such as Qianhai, Longhua and Baozhong, house prices have soared by nearly 40% in two months. Many property buyers are chasing up the market, and the proportion of investors is also rising. The data shows that from March 3 to April 28, 9777 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Shenzhen, up 43.2% year-on-year, and the average transaction price rose to 3 1.865 yuan/flat, up 4.2% year-on-year. In addition, the phenomenon of anti-price of second-hand housing owners in Shenzhen is widespread, and the phenomenon of real estate hoarding is very obvious, and even the owners have reversed the price by 200,000 overnight.
40% house prices generally rose by 40%
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 large, medium and small cities of 2015-/kloc-0, the Shenzhen property market ranked first in terms of year-on-year growth, accounting for 40.5%. In terms of second-hand housing, data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center show that from last year's 1 1 month to this year's1month, the average price of second-hand housing in the city rose from 29,930 yuan/flat to 45,690 yuan/flat, an increase of 53%.
Liu Jianwei, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in June 5438+ 10, the price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities rose year-on-year with a large increase, with an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month. There must be more than one reason for the rise in housing prices in first-tier cities, but the most obvious reason is that the inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities has remained high in recent years, and the phenomenon of destabilization in first-tier cities has been confirmed by more and more real estate enterprises, so developers invariably choose to "enter the city" or "return to the city", and the first-tier land is becoming more and more popular, and housing prices are expected to increase day by day.
The central bank reduced RRR five times and cut interest rates five times.
10 year 10 On October 24th, the central bank announced that it would cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage point, down by 0.5 percentage point. This RRR cut is the fifth RRR cut in 20 15 years.
Insiders said that since the beginning of this year, in terms of monetary policy, the country's favorable policies have been continuously stimulated, indicating the country's determination to boost the property market, which will also enhance the confidence of developers and owners.
In June, the city's average price broke "3" for the first time.
In June, the Shenzhen property market showed a situation of rising volume and price. According to the monitoring of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, 7494 sets of first-hand houses were sold in June, an increase of 22.7% from the previous month. Driven by the rapid rise in the price of second-hand houses, the average price of new houses has also risen rapidly. In June, the average price of new houses rose by 8%, reaching 307 13 yuan/square meter, a record high.
According to the data of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Soil and Resources, the transaction volume of a second-hand house in Shenzhen reached 23,224 in June, including 7,494 new houses, up 208.6% year-on-year; Second-hand housing transactions 15730 sets, up 292% year-on-year.
The sustained release of improved demand has pushed up the price of new houses in Shenzhen. In June, the proportion of new transactions with an average price of more than 30,000 yuan/square meter increased by 5 percentage points, reaching 5 1 new transactions, accounting for 43%. The buildings below 30,000 yuan/m2 are limited to Yantian, Longgang, Guanlan and Da Lang in Longhua, and Guangming and Fuyong in Baoan.
After the skyrocketing housing prices in July, they returned.
After experiencing the hot market in the first half of the year, the Shenzhen property market began to "turn pale" in July. According to the data of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Soil and Resources, in July, the price of first-hand housing in the city was 34,823 yuan/square meter, up 13.4% from the previous month. The number of sets of transactions was 64 14, down 14.4% from the previous month. In July, the turnover also showed a slow downward trend, with the weekly turnover dropping from 1.700 sets at the beginning of the month to 1.500 sets at the end of the month.
Judging from the actual situation of new sales, the developer's pricing is still on the high side, which leads to a general decline in the property conversion rate. In the first half of the year, the phenomenon of thousands of people buying houses and "daylight" has been greatly reduced. "As far as the current transaction is concerned, the performance of the Shenzhen market has slowed down, mainly due to a large number of reasons such as the concentration of demand in the market in the first half of the year, the faster-than-expected price increase, the weakening of positive effects, and the high base. However, the overall transaction level is at a high level and prices are still rising inertia. " He Qianru, manager of Midland Property National Research Center, said.
80% of small and medium-sized apartment transactions account for about 80% of the total.
Since this year, "3? Since the "30 New Deal", Shenzhen's housing prices have been high, which makes many buyers feel pressure. High housing prices have also caused many home buyers to turn their attention to small and medium-sized properties with low total price. From the perspective of market supply and transaction structure, small and medium-sized units have become the "main force" of Shenzhen property market this year. Both first-time buyers and investors have extended their tentacles to the "battlefield" of small and medium-sized units.
According to the statistics of China Index Academy, 20 15,1-1,59 168 sets of first-hand houses were sold in the city, of which 44,257 sets of buildings below 90 square meters were sold, accounting for about 80%.
It is understood that small and medium-sized huxing properties are more concerned by home buyers than large huxing properties because of their advantages such as low total price and low repayment pressure. And these small and medium-sized houses, as long as the opening, the sales rate is very ideal. Since the property market entered the adjustment period in the second half of this year, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the hot situation like the second quarter of this year no longer exists. However, according to many real estate sales staff, the sales volume of small and medium-sized units is not bad, and the consultation volume is significantly higher than that of large-area products.
The volume of new home transactions fell to a low point in September.
Due to the eye-catching performance of Shenzhen property market in the first half of the year, even after a short adjustment period in July and August, the traditional marketing season "Golden September and Silver 10" is still highly concerned and expected by the industry. However, before the arrival of Jin Jiu, the industry's predictions about the opening of several properties and the expected color of Jin Jiu have not been verified. On the contrary, the Shenzhen property market has been in a downturn since September.
(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-23. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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