The moving average represents the change of average market cost in a certain period. I attach great importance to the moving average, and I have summarized a complete set of market cost change laws-the moving average theory. His judgment of the general trend is very effective. The contents include:
1, the moving average covers.
2, average convergence.
3, the moving average is repaired.
4, the moving average diverges.
5. The moving averages are parallel.
6. Average pulse.
7. Average deviation.
8, moving average boost.
9, the moving average is reversed.
10, the moving average obeys.
1 1, the moving averages cross.
12, average angle.
First of all, I would like to give you a brief introduction of moving average compensation and moving average convergence, hoping to be improved and supplemented in the communication with you.
First, average coverage.
The EMA reflects the market cost within the EMA period, for example, the 30-day EMA reflects the average market cost within 30 days. The stock price has been fluctuating around the moving average. When the stock price deviates too far from the moving average, the stock price will make up (pull back) to the moving average due to the cost deviation, which is manifested in the rising callback in the bull market and the falling rebound in the bear market. For example, when the 1999 market is at 5. 19, the stock price deviates far from the medium-and long-term moving average. When the market hits 1756, the 30-week moving average is at 12 12, and the 60-week moving average is at 1249. When the stock price fluctuates violently at a high level,
When the market plunged below 1400 in early 2002, the 30-week moving average was 1763 and the 60-week moving average was 193 1 point. The stock price deviates from the moving average by a great distance, reaching more than 400 points in 30 weeks and approaching 600 points in 60 weeks. When the market fluctuates violently below 1400, it indicates that the market will bottom out and will cover the moving average. At the beginning of 2002, when the bottom was at 1339, I posted two posts in Cai Zhong forum to remind netizens to grab the rebound. One is "an inch of mountains and rivers and an inch of blood, tens of millions of heads and tens of millions of troops", in which it is proposed that the following 1400 points are empty graves. The other is "I love low-priced stocks", pointing out that oversold low-priced stocks are the mainstream of the rebound.
When the market fell from 1748 in July, 2002 to131kloc-0/in the previous period, although it felt that the market had insufficient downward momentum, it was still wrong. I didn't expect the market to rebound strongly in advance. The reason why we didn't enter the site at 1300 is that the 30-week line and the 60-week line were at 1.556 and 1.584 respectively, and they descended at a constant speed of about 6 points every week. The index only deviates from the moving average by more than 200 points. When it falls, the market continues to resist falling, and it is unlikely to have a large-scale rebound. The 60-week line is the lifeline of the bear market, and the possibility of being broken is very small, so it limits the height of the rebound space. My judgment is that if the market does not rebound at 13 1 1, but continues to plummet below 1200, the market will have the basis for a large-scale rebound! However, the market can never be seen through, and this is its charm! Conversely, it is precisely because the average deviation of this rebound is too low, so technically speaking, I think the height of the market and the value of participation will also be doomed to be limited.
Second, average convergence.
The state of the moving average is an important signal of the market. When multiple moving averages show signs of convergence, it means that the cost of the market tends to be consistent, and this is the closing time, because there will be changes! The market will choose a new direction.
For example, before1May 199919 market, many important moving averages such as 5 weeks, 10 weeks, 30 weeks and 60 weeks tend to converge from the past divergent state, which technically indicates that the market will change greatly. At the end of August and the beginning of September, 2002, the 5-week, 10, 30-week and 60-week moving averages of the market also tended to converge, indicating that the market would change direction, and then the market fell from the previous 1683 to1.
When the moving average converges, everyone can see that this is not important. What is important is: how to judge the direction of change before it changes? It is very important to judge the direction of change after the convergence of the moving average. Is the key to the success or failure of investment. If you judge correctly, you will be one step ahead of others.
When judging the direction of change, we should also grasp two other principles: the principle of obeying the moving average and the principle of twisting the moving average.
The principle of obeying the moving average is that the short-term moving average should obey the long-term moving average, and the changing direction will be in the direction of the long-term moving average. The long-term moving average will go up and the long-term moving average will go down. The daily line should obey the weekly line, and the short line should obey the long line.
Short-term follows long-term: in the five weeks before1May 1999 19, the 30-week moving average of 10 is downward, but the 60-week moving average is flat, while the 120 moving average is still strong upward. Therefore, the direction of change at this time should obey the direction of the long-term 120 moving average, which is the basis of the existence of the bull market. When it is a favorable policy, at the end of August and the beginning of September, 2002, 5 10, 0, 30 and 60 cycles converge, 30 cycles go up and 60 cycles go down. Therefore, we should obey the direction of 60 cycles and change down.
Daily line obeys weekly line: At the beginning of May, 2002, the daily line of the market converged on 5th, 30th, 60th and120th, and went up strongly on 30th and leveled off on 60th. At this time, the conclusion drawn from the daily line is that the market should go up. However, at that time, the weekly line was 5 weeks, 10 weeks, 30 weeks converged, 5 weeks leveled off, 10 weeks went up, but 30 weeks went down. At this time, the weekly line reached the opposite conclusion, downward. Therefore, when the market falls below 1600, it should stop and the market will change downwards.
The conclusion drawn by obeying the principle of moving average is not necessarily correct, it is only the greatest possibility, and it also has an important trap: it is dull, which can not be used to judge the highest and lowest points, but only to judge the general direction. In addition, in actual combat, the market often appears unexpected reversal. At this time, the principle of obeying the moving average is completely ineffective. At this time, the principle of reversing the moving average is used.
The principle of moving average torsion means that when the market appears in the opposite direction to obey the principle of moving average, it means that the market has bottomed out or peaked, and at this time it depends on the strength of torsion. The obedience principle of moving average has great inertia, which is generally effective and not easy to reverse. In the low position, many EMAs meet, so you can't know whether it's the bottom or the down relay platform, and you can't enter blindly. At the bottom, the conclusions drawn by using the obedience principle of EMAs are all downward, because the direction of long-term EMAs is downward. However, when the market has a continuous huge volume of transactions at a low level and reverses upwards, this is the principle of twisting the moving average! The bottom-up twist must have a huge turnover, and the turnover represents the strength of the twist! For example, in the early summer of 2002, the new electronic 6 yuan bottomed out, which was a continuous huge amount. At that time, I discussed this issue with netizens on the Cai Zhong Forum. It bottomed out earlier than the market. By the time the market bottomed out, he had risen from 6 yuan to 9 yuan. At that time, the prices of many low-priced stocks were very low, and 3 yuan and 4 yuan were everywhere. Therefore, although it is technically indicated that 60057 has a large amount of capital to enter the market, the market outlook should be upward, but judging from the oversold and rebound at that time, his short-term profit is far less than that of 4 yuan and 3 yuan, so I can see from the short-term increase at that time that 600057 is far less than that of 0728 and 0650. But after 600057, Changzhuang's control style was very scary. Of course, this is another story.
In addition, after the peak, when the stock price falls below the moving average, stop loss should be made. Although the EMA is still rising, it has reversed, so we should strengthen discipline at this time.
It is worth noting that any technical analysis method is not unique, let alone absolutely accurate. Everyone has their own defects, so we can't be superstitious about only one. We should combine various analytical methods for comprehensive application. For example, moving average analysis should combine morphological analysis and trend line analysis. If the fundamental analysis is filtered, the accuracy will be greatly improved, so as to complement each other and complement each other.
The Art of War of EMA Technology ——EMA Repair
The moving average represents the market cost to a great extent, and the most direct manifestation of the change of market cost is the operation of the moving average. When the stock price rises in the bull market, the market cost will also rise, and the moving average will run steadily upward. When the market enters a bear market, the market cost also moves down with the falling stock price. At this point, the moving average runs downward. In the actual replication, we will find that the stock price is closely related to the moving average, and the stock price always fluctuates around the moving average. The theoretical basis for explaining this phenomenon is the cost factor. When the market goes up, the cost of the market will also go up. When the stock price rises too fast in a short period of time, due to the insufficient turnover rate, the profit-taking disk increases in a short period of time, resulting in long-term liquidation and profit selling pressure, which leads to the stock price returning to the cost (moving average). When the stock price falls too fast in a short time, similarly, because the market cost does not fall rapidly, the average cost of the market will lose money. At this time, the selling pressure will be reduced, and short covering will appear, leading to bargain hunting, which will lead to the stock price rebound. There is a strong attraction between the stock price and the moving average. When the stock price is far from the moving average, due to cost factors, the stock price will return to the moving average, thus forming a callback or rebound. This phenomenon is "EMA repair" (the deviation rate between stock price and EMA repair). Deviation rate is a very important technical index, which is very important in actual combat. It intuitively reflects the degree to which the stock price deviates from the moving average.
When the stock price is repairing the moving average, there will be two situations: 1, actively repairing. 2. Passive repair.
1, active repair means that when the stock price deviates too far from the moving average, it fluctuates violently, the trading volume is enlarged, and it returns to the moving average quickly. This phenomenon generally appears at the top and bottom.
A. Take the initiative to repair the bottom. When the stock price plummeted continuously, panic selling occurred at this time, and the stock price plunged into a straight dive, and the stock price quickly moved away from the moving average. At the same time, the whole moving average system diverges, and the medium and long-term moving averages can't keep up with the running speed of stock prices, which leads to a huge technical deviation rate in the market. When the panic irrational selling ended, the selling pressure in the market quickly eased, and the bears were basically out at this time. However, long-term bargain-hunting began to intervene in a big way. Due to the reduction of selling pressure, low-level buying can easily lead to a rapid rebound in stock prices and sharp fluctuations in stock prices. Short sellers have a lot of cash in their hands in the early stage. Once the stock price rebounded, the bears were afraid of stepping on the air and flipped into the market at any time, so the stock price rose in volume and took the initiative to quickly attack the upper moving average. This is the active repair of the moving average at the bottom. At this time, it means that the market has bottomed out, at least in the short term.
B, active repair at the top, when the stock price continues, there will be a consumptive rise at this time, the stock price will slowly rise into a straight line, and the stock price will quickly move away from the medium and long-term moving average. At the same time, the whole moving average system will diverge, and the medium and long-term moving averages can't keep up with the rising speed of stock prices, which leads to a huge technical deviation rate in the market. When the consumptive rise is over, the buying in the market will decrease rapidly, and at this time, the bulls have basically entered the market. However, the huge profit-taking market has caused large-scale short selling pressure. With the weakening of buying, selling at a high level can easily lead to a rapid decline in stock prices and sharp fluctuations in stock prices. Once the stock price falls at a high level, the bulls are afraid of locking up and flip the stop loss at any time, so the stock price drops in volume and actively turns back to the medium and long-term moving average below, which is the active repair of the upper moving average. This shows that the market has peaked, at least in the short term.
2. Passive repair of the moving average. Passive repair of the moving average means that when the stock price deviates from the moving average, it does not take the initiative to repair it, but stands still and passively waits for the moving average to approach the stock price. This phenomenon generally occurs in the middle of the rise or fall, showing strong consolidation or falling resistance. He is a relay signal of the market. Once the EMA keeps up, the stock price will still maintain its original upward or downward trend.
A. upward passive repair. At this time, the market is on the way up, and the stock price deviates from the medium and long-term moving average. However, due to the continuous active trading volume, OTC funds continued to enter the market and fully changed hands, which led to the stock price deviating from the moving average. However, the profit-taking disk was digested by a steady stream of OTC orders, which led to the inability of the stock price to make a deep correction. Once the lower moving average keeps up, the stock price rises again after digesting the profit-taking disk. The specific performance is: after the stock price rises, it stands firm at a relatively high level, the callback is insufficient, and the buying continues, which is the consolidation of a strong market.
B, passive repair on the way down. At this time, the market is on the way down, and the stock price deviates from the medium and long-term moving average. However, due to insufficient buying, the chips in the market kept leaving the market, which led to the stock price deviating from the moving average. However, the buying and short covering were digested by the continuous selling pressure in the market, which led to the failure of the strong rebound of the stock price. Once the upper EMA is depressed, the market cost tends to be consistent again, and the stock price falls again after digesting the short covering market. The specific performance is: after the stock price falls, it stands still, lacking elasticity and weak rebound, which is the downward resistance.
In actual copying, we often encounter the phenomenon of repairing the moving average. However, the key to the problem is not to find it, because it is embodied in the graph itself and everyone can see it. For us, the key problem is how to judge which repair method it belongs to, so as to help us judge the future market trend. This is what we need most. The repair method of judging the moving average can be judged according to the following aspects.
First, the volume coefficient,
Continued activity when the volume rises. Note: Continuous active trading volume is the key to judge the problem. If the trading volume continues to be active, it is likely to form a strong consolidation of the market, leading to passive repair on the way up. If the volume is not continuous and active, it may be called back, leading to active repair.
When the market fell, the amount of insufficient buying was low and the rebound was weak, indicating that the market entered a downward resistance, which led to passive repair on the way down.
B, factors of rising or falling speed,
The initiative to repair the moving average generally appears after a rapid plunge. The passive repair of EMA generally occurs when the stock price rises or falls moderately.
C, deviation rate factors
The active repair of EMA usually occurs after a huge deviation rate. At this time, the stock price deviates far from the medium-and long-term moving average, and the main rising or falling segments have been basically completed.
Passive repair EMA generally occurs when the deviation rate is not very large. At this time, although the stock price deviates from the medium-and long-term moving average, the distance of deviation is limited, and the main decline or main rise has not yet been completed.
D, the stability coefficient of the moving average.
The active repair of EMA generally occurs when EMA diverges greatly, while the passive repair of EMA generally occurs when EMA diverges to a certain extent.
It is worth noting that EMA analysis is very effective on the whole, but for some highly controlled Zhuangzi stocks with a high concentration of chips, the stock price has been completely artificially copied due to the extremely high degree of chip control. Therefore, any technical analysis of Zhuangzi stock which is absolutely controlled by chips is largely invalid.
In addition, in EMA analysis, the state of EMA and the length of EMA cycle are also very important. The arrangement state, period and angle of the moving average are important factors to judge the future trend of the market. Analysis of problems should be considered comprehensively. We can't absolutize an analysis method, because the development of the market is influenced by many factors, and there is also the possibility of mutual transformation between various forms under certain conditions. Any analysis method has its limitations, so the conclusion from multi-angle analysis is much more reliable than that from a single angle.
The Art of War of EMA Technology —— EMA Deviation
The essence of the EMA theory is the cost trend of the market, and the rise and fall of the stock price always revolves around the market cost, so the EMA representing the cost is very important in actual replication.
Under normal circumstances, the stock price fluctuates along the moving average, and the period of the moving average is a key factor. The moving average with short period has high sensitivity, but its accuracy is relatively low, while the moving average with long period has low sensitivity, but its stability and accuracy are relatively high. For example, the 3-day moving average is more sensitive than the 5-day moving average, and the 240-day moving average is longer than the 120 moving average, but the trend direction represented by the 240-day line is more accurate, and the longer the moving average is, the more important it is.
When you actually copy, you will often encounter the phenomenon of deviation from the moving average, which is very helpful for grasping short-term opportunities. The so-called moving average deviation refers to two situations:
1, when the stock price bottoms out, the running direction of the medium and long-term moving average is generally downward. When the stock price breaks through a moving average, the running direction of the stock price is "cross", which is opposite to the broken moving average. This is the deviation from the moving average.
2. On the other hand, when the stock price peaks and falls rapidly, the running direction of the medium and long-term moving average is still upward. When the stock price quickly breaks through a medium-and long-term moving average, the direction of the stock price is downward, but the direction of the broken moving average is indeed upward, and the directions of the stock price and the broken moving average are also "cross" and opposite, which is also the phenomenon of the deviation of the moving average.
The deviation from the moving average usually appears or plummets, which is very helpful for judging the bottom and top. The stock price has a pull on the moving average, and the moving average is also attractive to the stock price. It is an abnormal market state and a short-term behavior that the direction of stock price and moving average cross and deviate. This phenomenon will be corrected due to the attraction of the moving average. At the same time, because the moving average represents the direction of the trend to a great extent, and the formation of a trend is the result of many factors, the trend will correct the deviated stock price, thus causing a rebound or callback. This method is very effective for judging short-term bottom and top.
For example, in this round of market, after April 9, the market rose rapidly driven by index stocks and quickly broke through the annual line. This trend is generally high-spirited At this time, although the market is rising strongly, the annual line direction broken by the index is still downward, and the annual line direction is completely opposite to the index direction. At this point, there is a cross deviation in the direction of the moving average. At this point, once the market fluctuates at a high level and falls below the short-term 10 moving average, it indicates that the market has peaked in the short term. The index needs to be adjusted back to the breakthrough moving average, which is the objective law of the market itself. Before and after the market peaked in April, I told you in a post titled "Focus on the Lifeline of the Market", which mentioned that the 10 moving average is the lifeline of the market. Its theoretical basis is the cross deviation of moving averages.
For another example,1May-July, 1997, due to the market crash, the moving averages crossed and deviated many times and rebounded. 1In mid-May, 997, the stock price quickly broke through the 30-day line in a sharp fall, but at this time, the 30-day line was still on the rise, and the index broke through the moving average. At this time, the moving averages crossed and deviated, and rebounded. 1In mid-June, 997, after the market broke through the 60-day line, the 60-day line was still upward, and the index and the moving average crossed and rebounded again. 1At the beginning of July, 1997, when the market broke through the antenna of 120, it was also the cross deviation between the index and the moving average, and it also rebounded later.
Cross-deviation between stock price and moving average is very common. This method is only a technical reference index, not absolute, but as a reference index, it is still of great application value. Several problems should be paid attention to when using the deviation of moving average:
1, the K-line of the stock price and the moving average must cross, and the directions are opposite. If the stock price does not cross the moving average, even if it is in the opposite direction at this time, it is not a deviation from the moving average.
2. When judging the short-term bottom and top after the deviation of the moving average, it should be noted that the stock price must be reliable when there is a violent shock. If the stock price does not fluctuate violently after the deviation of the moving average, but there is strong consolidation or falling resistance, it shows that the market ignores the deviation of the moving average and the original rising or falling state will continue. For example, 000002, after Vanke broke through the 120 moving average in early March this year, the stock price crossed and deviated from the 120 moving average. However, at this time, its stock price entered a state of control at a high level, and the small yin and small yang mode fluctuated upward. The stock price did not fluctuate violently when it deviated from the moving average. Therefore, it is no longer applicable to deviate from the moving average at this time, because the stock price has entered a "super state" after control. I'll discuss the problem of "moving average distortion" with you later. For another example, after the top breakthrough of 200 1 Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in July and August, there was also a short-term phenomenon of "moving average deviation", but what happened later in the market was to resist falling below the moving average to repair the moving average deviation, which indicated that the market had entered a "very weak state". At this time, the moving average deviation technology cannot be used, and the moving average state at this time also belongs to a kind of "moving average inversion".
3. The moving average deviation technology is only applicable to the general market. When the market enters "extremely strong" or "extremely weak" state, the theory of "average inversion" should be used to judge the general trend. At this time, there are two market conditions:
First, a strong market. At this time, it is a continuous huge breakthrough in the deviation from the moving average. After the breakthrough, the stock price was strongly sorted at a high level and refused to call back. The key factor to judge this phenomenon lies in the huge amount of "persistence", and the amount of "persistence" is very important.
B, extremely weak market. At this time, it is infinite downward resistance after continuous decline, and the stock price is unable to rebound. Even if the stock price stabilizes temporarily, it can't enter the market to grab the rebound, because the stock price is passively waiting for the moving average to be pressed halfway up the mountain, which belongs to the passive repair of the moving average. Once the moving average above it is pressed down, the stock price will still fall.
The moving average "will not die" chooses strong stocks.
There are two ways to buy EMA: 1, and the standard is: above the 30-day EMA, the hook of the 5-day EMA just touches the 10 EMA, and the two EMAs have the same value, and then the 5-day EMA opens. Example: Zhenhua Port Machinery (600320), 65438+February, 2003 12, above the 30-day moving average, the hook of the 5-day moving average just touched the 10 moving average, and the two moving averages were of the same value. The next day, the 5-day moving average opened, and a heavy positive line appeared on that day. Buy at an average price of 13.30 yuan, and sell at an average price of 17.00 yuan in February, with earnings per share of 3.70 yuan and 27.8% in 38 trading days. 2. Strong type: above the 30-day moving average, the hook of the 5-day moving average approaches the 10 moving average downward, but does not touch it, and then the opening of the 5-day moving average is upward. Example: Yunnan Copper (000878), on June 5438+February 65438+February 2, 2003, above the 30-day moving average, the hook of the 5-day moving average approached the 10 moving average downward, and then reopened for upward movement. On the same day, there was a heavy volume positive line, and the average price was 5.00, and the average price was 6.00,65438 on February 22.
Average: The buying method of "before death" can evolve into the trend of "climbing uphill". Features: Above the 30-day moving average, the 5-day moving average and the 10 moving average appeared many times, and the stock price fluctuated upward. This trend is the characteristic of strong stocks, and it has great potential for rising. When buying a machine: you can buy it every time there is a "dying" buying signal. Example: Huaxia Bank (6000 15), from February 4, 2003 to February 7, 2004, the rising market was 65438+, and the 5-day and 10 moving averages were above the 30-day moving average, resulting in three "dying struggles".
The "live before death" buying method of moving averages can be extended to any two moving averages. Commonly used are: 1.20 moving average and 60 moving average "live first" buying method. Example: Hudong Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. (600 150), on June 29th, 2004, the 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average showed "dying" buying signals. On that day, a heavy volume positive line appeared, which was bought at an average price of 5.90 yuan and sold at an average price of 7.80 yuan in February, 2004. 2, 20-day moving average and 120-day moving average "will die" buying method.
Moving average "second handshake" buying method
Features: above the 30-day moving average, the 5-day moving average and the 10 moving average are dead forks (the first handshake), and then the golden fork (the second handshake). Buying opportunity: You can buy above the 30-day moving average, after the dead fork of the 5 th and 10 moving average, and then on the day of the golden fork, and there is a heavy negative line. Example: China Shipping Development (600026), in 2003, 1 18, 5 and 10 were above the 30-day moving average, and1October 26 165438+26 crossed again, on the same day. It was bought at an average price of 7.20 yuan, and sold at 9. 10 yuan on February 23, 65438. The earnings per share 1.90 yuan, 19 trading days were 20.8%.
The "second handshake" buying method of the moving average can evolve into a trend of "riding the waves". Features: Above the 30-day moving average, the "second handshake" buying signal appeared many times on the 5 th and 10 moving averages, and the stock price fluctuated upward in a wave-like manner. In this trend, the stock price has a large room to rise, buying opportunities: every time there is a "second handshake" buying signal, there is a double negative line that can be bought. Example: The powerful stock Shi Refining & Chemical (000783) started this wave of rising market on June 28th, 2003, and its share price fluctuated upward after six "second handshake" buying signals.
The "second handshake" buying method of moving averages can be extended to any two moving averages. Commonly used are: 1,1above the 20-day moving average, the 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average. Example: baoshan iron & steel (6000 19), September 22, 2003, above the 120 moving average, the 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average appeared dead forks,1October 28, 10, and the 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average crossed again, resulting in "the second. 6 yuan bought it at the average price of the day, and it rose to 8.06 yuan on June 7, 2004, with a strong rise. 2. Nanjing Waterway (600087), 2003122 October, the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average crossed, and on126 October, the two moving averages crossed again, and a "second handshake" buying signal appeared. It was bought at an average price of 6. 10 yuan, and sold at 8.00 yuan on February 23, 19. Earnings per share 1.90 yuan, 19 trading days were 23.7%.
It should be noted that in the rising market, the "second handshake" buying method and the "dying" buying method of the moving average will appear alternately. Example: Qilu Petrochemical (600002), in the rising market of 18 in September 2003 to 10 in February 2004, the "dying" buying method and the "second handshake" buying method alternately appeared, and the stock price fluctuated upward. Most powerful stocks will show this trend.
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