Is there a typhoon in July? Yes, at present, the SST in the South China Sea and the sea area east of Luzon Island in the Philippines is above 30℃, which is on the high side of 1 ~ 1.5.
According to the model forecast, in the first half of July, the subtropical high will continue to control the low-latitude tropical ocean surface, which is not conducive to the formation of typhoons in the western Pacific, but there may be 1 tropical depression or typhoon in the South China Sea; In the second half of July, with the northward movement of subtropical high, typhoon activities in the South China Sea and the western Pacific will be relatively active compared with the previous period. It is estimated that there will be 2 ~ 3 typhoons in July, which is less than the normal period (3.7), of which 1 ~ 2 will land in China.
According to the latest news, in the second half of 20 19, the number of typhoons in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific will be 18 ~ 20, which is less than that in the same period of the year (22). Among them, 6 ~ 7 landed in China, which was close to the same period of the year (6.4). The landing intensity is strong, and the westbound route is the main route, which mainly affects the coastal areas of southeast and south China. It is necessary to guard against disasters such as heavy rains and floods, strong winds and storm surges caused by strong typhoons.
The proportion of typhoons landing in China all the year round (that is, the percentage of landing typhoons to numbered typhoons) is about 28%, but in the past decade, the proportion of typhoons landing has increased obviously because the source of typhoons is farther west in the warm background. Taking similar years as an example, the number of typhoons numbered in 20 10 is only 14, but the number of landings is 7, and the landing ratio is as high as 50%. In 20 16, there were 26 typhoons with 8 landings, and the landing ratio was 3 1%. It is estimated that the proportion of typhoon landing this year is higher than normal, which needs more attention.
Typhoon characteristics in the first half of this year: early preparation time
The number of typhoons is small
Typhoon "Pabu" on 20 19 was compiled at 65438+ 10/,which was significantly earlier than March 20th and two days earlier than Typhoon "Blavin" on 20 1 8. As of June 27th, there were only two typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, and no typhoon has been generated since March, and the number of typhoons generated is two less than that in the same period of the year (198 1-20 10). Taiwan Province landed on June 27th at the beginning of the year, and no typhoon landed in China this year.
In the first half of this year, El Nino was the main reason for the lack of typhoons.
The relatively small number of typhoons in the first half of this year is closely related to the recent El Ni? o event. From May to June, the western Pacific subtropical high (subtropical high) is located in the southwest, controlling the South China Sea and the sea area east of the Philippines, which is the source of typhoon generation and is not conducive to typhoon generation.
Statistics show that since 198 1 year (except this year), there are still no typhoons in 1998, 20 10 and 20 16 from March to June. These three years are the follow-up years of El Nino events. The subtropical high in these three years has the characteristics of continuous strong west, and the circulation this year.