Under the guidance of the policy at that time, China's economy entered a period of rapid growth from 1982. After more than two years of continuous expansion, in the fourth quarter of 1984, China's economy began to show obvious overheating momentum. In order to meet the rapid economic development and make up for the larger fiscal deficit, the central government began to issue more money. At the end of 1984, the cash in circulation reached 792 1000 billion yuan, up 49.5% year-on-year, which led to the skyrocketing inflation and the first "snap-up" since the reform and opening up. The total retail sales of 1984 in the fourth quarter was 94.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.8% over the same period of 1983. In order to prevent the economic situation from deteriorating further, the central bank began to implement a monetary policy with the main goal of balancing credit and reducing inflation. The implementation of this monetary policy marks the transformation of China from planned economy to market economy and from administrative orders to macro-control. However, due to the low degree of market economy and imperfect monetary policy tools, the effect of monetary policy is not obvious.
Second, monetary policy analysis 1987~ 199 1 year
1.1987 ~1991the choice of the ultimate goal of monetary policy: anti-inflation.
In view of the inflation of 1986, the central bank started to formulate relevant monetary policies to curb inflation, but this round of monetary policy formulation was not successful. 1987~ 1988 is another stage of economic expansion. Driven by the early economic expansion, the price index continued to rise, reaching the first historical high since the reform and opening up. Based on 1985 price index, 1986 price index rose by 6.0%, 1987 price index rose by 13.7%, and 1988 price index rose by 34.8%. The main reason for this inflation is still that in order to meet the growth requirements of social fixed assets investment and solve the problem of enterprise capital shortage, the government has increased its fiscal expenditure since 1986 and continuously expanded its fiscal deficit. Especially after the implementation of 1988 "one household" financial system, the social demand has further soared. At the same time, in order to solve the government deficit problem, money is issued year after year. By the fourth quarter of 1988, the currency in circulation in the market was 2134 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. Due to the over-issuance of money, the circulation of money in the market has increased sharply, which has triggered a violent rise in prices and currency depreciation. In May of the same year, the government announced that the price subsidy would be changed from implicit subsidy to explicit subsidy [2]. In June, the government repeatedly expressed its determination to overcome the obstacles of price reform. In July, the government tried to open the price of brand-name tobacco and alcohol. This series of measures aggravated residents' uncertain psychological expectations, which triggered the snap-up of 1988 in mid-August and the bank deposit run. 1988 at the end of the fourth quarter, the total retail sales increased by 20.3% year-on-year. Bank deposits decreased by 2.6 billion yuan in August, and the official inflation rate reached 18.5%. In order to rectify the serious inflation, the central government has implemented a comprehensive "overload rectification" of the economy, and its measures are the most severe since the reform and opening up.
Iii. Analysis of Monetary Policy 1992~ 1997
1.1992 ~1997 the choice of the ultimate goal of monetary policy: anti-inflation+balance of payments.
China's economy experienced a low inflation period of 1990~ 1992, and China's economy became active after Deng Xiaoping's southern tour 1992. By the first half of 1993, inflationary pressure began to rise again, and the financial industry was in chaos. In the domestic financial market, a large amount of funds are concentrated in the real estate market in coastal areas. In order to realize their different interests, banks, financial institutions and local governments evaded the regulations and supervision of the central bank and raised a large amount of funds for the real estate industry, resulting in excessive money supply and credit scale exceeding the plan repeatedly. The central government began to implement a tight monetary policy in the summer of 1993, and Premier Zhu Rongji personally served as the governor of the People's Bank of China. The main measures taken include: strengthening financial discipline; Separate state-owned banks from their subordinate trust and investment companies; All specialized banks must immediately cancel unplanned loans; Restrict cross-regional loans; Send working groups to the provinces to check the implementation and so on. At the same time, in the foreign exchange market, the RMB depreciated sharply, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar suddenly dropped from 1:5.64 to 1:8.27, and the balance of payments deteriorated. Due to the huge pressure of domestic demand and the soaring investment demand, the fiscal deficit and the extraordinary growth of money supply have led to an all-round outbreak of inflation. At that time, the economy was overheated, and the main goal of monetary policy was to curb the increasingly serious inflation and balance of payments.
Four. abstract
Since 1984, the central bank's monetary policy has had both successes and failures. Due to the underdevelopment and imperfection of China's financial market, specifically, it is in line with China's national conditions that the monetary policy chooses the loan scale during the period of 1984~ 1997, with M0 as the main money supply as the intermediary target. They are not only simple and easy to measure, but also have strong direct operability. Because the effect of China's central bank's use of economic leverage to regulate the economy is not obvious, on the contrary, the central bank's use of old credit control means (mainly administrative orders) is often very effective. It is very effective for China's monetary policy to take the indicators with strong direct manipulation as the intermediate goal of monetary policy, and it also reflects how fragile the market is after so many years of reform in China. It must also be pointed out that due to the institutional division of microeconomic entities and the institutional restrictions of banks, the monetary policy in the period of 1.984 ~ 1.997 showed the characteristics of violent swing between the excessive money supply and the tight money supply, which also led to the economic operation of our country often falling into the cycle of "getting hot as soon as it is released"-"getting hot as soon as it is released".