First, the debt growth rate:
According to the latest data released by the International Finance Association, as of the end of September, the global debt increased by 15 trillion this year, eventually reaching $272 trillion.
277 trillion dollars, what is this concept? According to the latest data of IIF, this is equivalent to 365% of global GDP.
From 20 12 to 20 16, the total growth in four years was 6 trillion, with an average annual10.5 trillion. This year is 15 trillion, that is, the growth rate of global debt this year is 20 12-20 16 times that of 10.
This unprecedented debt inflation soared to the highest level in history, equivalent to the global per capita debt of $38,800, only one step away from breaking through 40,000.
Second, the debt growth rate is uncontrollable.
Under the epidemic, all countries are saving themselves. Only by printing money and issuing bonds, the debt bubble has increased rapidly.
If the global debt grows out of control, the future trend will continue.
Third, people go up, water flows down, and money is smart, so they will go up.
Global funds go to places with high interest rates. The spread between China and the United States reached a record high. The yield of China's ten-year treasury bonds is 3.3325%, and that of the United States is 0.86%.
Simply having a high rate of return does not actually allow a large influx of global capital. More importantly, China's economy is the first to recover. For example, if you lend money to a person, besides the rate of return, it depends on whether he can pay back the money. Our factory machines are roaring in China now, but overseas, the economy has stopped because of the epidemic. Therefore, on the one hand, global demand needs China supply; On the other hand, global production was replaced by China. So the spare money in the world is more willing to go to China or lend money to people in China. China's economy is making money because of high interest rates.
De-leveraging will continue and investment minefields will still exist. The continuous influx of overseas funds has created conditions for China to deleverage. From the scale of mortgage, the explosion of trust, the earthquake in the bond market ... a series of recent combination punches have reduced financial risks. On the other hand, China's financial openness is unprecedented. In this year's "Government Work Report", financial opening to the outside world is the focus.
The Guidelines for Bond Business of Foreign Government Institutions and International Development Institutions will promote the further opening up of the credit rating industry.
Opinions on further accelerating the construction of Shanghai international financial center and financial support for the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta
On May 7th, the management of domestic securities and futures investment funds of foreign institutional investors was simplified, and the requirements for the quota management of domestic securities investment of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) and RMB qualified foreign institutional investors (RQFII) were cancelled, and the limit on the number of custodians was cancelled.
On June 13, American Express became the first foreign-funded card organization to obtain the China bank card clearing business license.
If we put leverage reduction, risk reduction and opening to the outside world together, we will find that the higher the degree of openness, the stricter the internal risk control. As the saying goes, the barbaric growth period of the financial industry has passed, and financial investment risks are mainly caused by non-standard and fund pools. In the future, investment products will be gradually: first, strictly break the exchange. Second, non-standard products are transferred to standardized and net-worth products, and the promotion of high-yield non-standard products needs to be cautious.